Craig Sibbald
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Craig Sibbald's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (1651 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €138k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1651 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1210
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €101k – €256k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -55% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1651 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 24 | 1651 | 56% | 4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 1210 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 13 | 878 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1200 | 1193 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 2078 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1313 | 1176 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 11 | 514 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1350 | 1278 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 28 | 1934 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 1315 | 1325 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 18 | 1185 | 44% | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1266 | 1315 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Livingston FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 22 | 1104 | 37% | 3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 1308 | 1266 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 4 | 319 | 0 | 0 | 1337 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | 1489 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 2 | 203 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Livingston FC | 2 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Petko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Caleb Stanko Super League 1 · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Javier Mendoza Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Daniel Lukasik Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Osman Çelik Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €225k | €200k | flat |
| Juan Muñiz Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Alexandros Vergonis Super League 1 · 2015 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Sean Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dundee United | Falkirk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Livingston FC | Dundee United | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Falkirk | Livingston FC | Unknown | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Falkirk FC U17 | Falkirk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.