Takumi Minamino
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Takumi Minamino's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (950 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -70% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 950 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -79% (IQR -84% to -65%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 950 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 15 | 950 | 31% | 3 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 1464 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 31 | 2245 | 73% | 6 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 1438 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 30 | 2127 | 70% | 9 | 6 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 1484 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 18 | 724 | 21% | 1 | 4 | 0.62 | 0.35 | 1384 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 11 | 178 | 5% | 3 | 0 | 1.52 | 0.30 | 1498 | 1898 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Southampton FC | Premier League | LW | 10 | 717 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 1504 | 1468 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 9 | 289 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 1438 | 1763 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | LW | 10 | 242 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1592 | 1842 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 5 | 326 | 1 | 1 | 1556 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 568 | 3 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 4 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 230 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 61 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 6 | 510 | 2 | 3 | 1691 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 245 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kuranyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €5.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Éder Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Andy Delort Ligue 1 · 2023 | 32 | €7.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Kevin Volland Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €8.0M | €700k | fell |
| Juanmi Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Konstantinos Mitroglou Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €10.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Luiz Adriano Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €10.0M | €6.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Liverpool | Monaco | €15.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Southampton | Liverpool | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Liverpool | Southampton | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Salzburg | Liverpool | €8.5M | €12.5M |
| 7 Jan 2015 | Cerezo Osaka | Salzburg | €800k | €1.3M |
| 1 Feb 2013 | Cerezo U18 | Cerezo Osaka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.