Lukas Lerager

The model rates Lukas Lerager's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (1187 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1187 (60% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.15

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.12

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

49 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.47 (rank 13)

Team strength (Elo)

1359

Opponent strength

1228

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€256k – €528k

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -55% to -16%).

• ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1187 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

23 (MID)

Relative output kept

68%–122%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

65%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.