
Filip Mladenovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Filip Mladenovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 36.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €170k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1200 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1256
- Opponent strength
- 1249
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €81k – €270k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; changed club; team strength down (-146 Elo); relative output up 129% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -64% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1200 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | LB | 10 | 849 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 1249 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 8 | 351 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 1156 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 23 | 1796 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1286 | 1402 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | LB | 22 | 1552 | 66% | 1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 1229 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2016/17 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | LB | 5 | 362 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1289 | 1383 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LB | 2 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1515 | 1522 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LB | 14 | 849 | 28% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1549 | 1478 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 360 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 390 | 0 | 2 | 1445 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 501 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 368 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | BATE Borisov | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | 1696 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | BATE Borisov | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Bengtsson Superliga · 2021 | 33 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Dorin Goian Super League 1 · 2016 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Paul Hanlon Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Thomas Kortegaard Superliga · 2019 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Volodymyr Chesnakov Premier Liga · 2023 | 35 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Juhani Ojala Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 33 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Milhazes Super League 1 · 2016 | 35 | €350k | €75k | fell |
| Vitaliy Vernydub Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Panathinaikos | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Karagümrük | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €300k |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Panathinaikos | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Legia Warszawa | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €900k |
| 21 Jul 2020 | Lechia Gdansk | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 27 Jan 2018 | Standard Liège | Lechia Gdansk | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | 1.FC Köln | Standard Liège | €1.2M | €2.0M |
| 5 Jan 2016 | BATE Borisov | 1.FC Köln | €1.5M | €1.8M |
| 13 Mar 2014 | Without Club | BATE Borisov | Unknown | €750k |
| 22 Nov 2013 | Red Star | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 17 Dec 2011 | Borac Cacak | Red Star | €354k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Borac Cacak U19 | Borac Cacak | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.