Filip Mladenovic

35 yrs · Left-back · Serbia
Fatih Karagümrük · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€300k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€62k – €398k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€188k – €289k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€81k – €270k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€210k – €227k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€62k – €398k
Model value (performance-implied)€188k – €289k
Projected value (24 months)€81k – €270k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Filip Mladenovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage36.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €170k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1200 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1256
Opponent strength
1249
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€81k – €270k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; changed club; team strength down (-146 Elo); relative output up 129% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -64% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1200 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigLB1084928%100.110.21124911690.40
2025/26Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1LB835115%010.260.14115614650.43
2024/25Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1LB23179677%020.100.08128614020.35
2023/24Panathinaikos Athlitikos OmilosSuper League 1LB22155266%140.290.14122914530.42
2016/17Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueLB536213%000.000.08128913830.62
2016/171.FC KölnBundesligaLB290%000.000.11151515221.06
2015/161.FC KölnBundesligaLB1484928%020.210.22154914781.02

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos436020—
2025/26Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos399001390
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos135001442
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos4390021445
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos436001—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos2180001532
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos650110—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeaguePanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos6368001536
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos261001561
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueBATE Borisov6540201696
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingBATE Borisov6540001405

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Pierre Bengtsson
Superliga · 2021
33€350k€200kfell
Dorin Goian
Super League 1 · 2016
36€300k€300kflat
Paul Hanlon
Scottish Premiership · 2024
34€250k€250kflat
Thomas Kortegaard
Superliga · 2019
35€150k€150kflat
Volodymyr Chesnakov
Premier Liga · 2023
35€250k€100kfell
Juhani Ojala
Scottish Premiership · 2022
33€400k€100kfell
Milhazes
Super League 1 · 2016
35€350k€75kfell
Vitaliy Vernydub
Premier Liga · 2023
36€200k€200kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026PanathinaikosWithout ClubUnknown€300k
30 Jun 2026KaragümrükPanathinaikosFree / loan€300k
6 Feb 2026PanathinaikosKaragümrükFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2023Legia WarszawaPanathinaikosFree / loan€900k
21 Jul 2020Lechia GdanskLegia WarszawaFree / loan€1.2M
27 Jan 2018Standard LiègeLechia GdanskFree / loan€750k
1 Jan 20171.FC KölnStandard Liège€1.2M€2.0M
5 Jan 2016BATE Borisov1.FC Köln€1.5M€1.8M
13 Mar 2014Without ClubBATE BorisovUnknown€750k
22 Nov 2013Red StarWithout ClubUnknown€1.0M
17 Dec 2011Borac CacakRed Star€354k€500k
1 Jul 2010Borac Cacak U19Borac CacakUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Filip Mladenovic · MoneyballAI