
Lucas Pirard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Pirard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 11.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €252k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 810 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1341
- Opponent strength
- 1399
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €128k – €344k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+140 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 810 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1399 | 1341 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 7 | 541 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1430 | 1201 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1423 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2021/22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1380 | 1499 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1337 | 1187 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 10 | 900 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1381 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2017/18 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1935 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1355 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1257 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Standard Liège | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdenek Zlamal Super Lig · 2017 | 32 | €350k | €450k | rose |
| Trigueira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 30 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| António Filipe Liga Portugal · 2015 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Fatih Öztürk Super Lig · 2017 | 31 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Adi Adilovic Super League 1 · 2013 | 30 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Mário Felgueiras Liga Portugal · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Robert Zwinkels Eredivisie · 2014 | 31 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Jody Viviani Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | KV Kortrijk | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €250k |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Union SG | KV Kortrijk | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Waasland-Beveren | Union SG | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Union SG | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | €400k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Waasland-Beveren | Union SG | Free / loan | €400k |
| 11 Jul 2019 | Sint-Truiden | Waasland-Beveren | €125k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Standard Liège | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Lommel United | Standard Liège | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Aug 2015 | Standard Liège | Lommel United | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Standard U21 | Standard Liège | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Standard U19 | Standard U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Standard U17 | Standard U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.