Lucas Pirard

31 yrs · Goalkeeper · Belgium
Standard Liège · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€350k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€112k – €428k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€256k – €598k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€128k – €344k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€172k – €485k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€112k – €428k
Model value (performance-implied)€256k – €598k
Projected value (24 months)€128k – €344k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lucas Pirard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average11.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €252k vs market €350k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
810 (30% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
11 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1341
Opponent strength
1399
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€128k – €344k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+140 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -50% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 810 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
214 (all positions)
Relative output kept
68%–140%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Standard LiègeJupiler Pro LeagueGK981030%000.000.00139913410.65
2024/25KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueGK754120%000.000.01143012010.63
2023/24KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueGK981030%000.000.00142311870.63
2021/22Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueGK1903%000.000.00138014990.49
2020/21SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueGK436012%000.000.00133711870.55
2019/20SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueGK1090034%000.000.00138111870.63
2017/18Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueGK22193572%000.000.00135512670.63
2016/17Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueGK16144053%000.000.00136112570.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Europe Play OffsStandard Liège2180001350

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Zdenek Zlamal
Super Lig · 2017
32€350k€450krose
Trigueira
Liga Portugal · 2018
30€300k€200kfell
António Filipe
Liga Portugal · 2015
30€400k€200kfell
Fatih Öztürk
Super Lig · 2017
31€500k€200kfell
Adi Adilovic
Super League 1 · 2013
30€300k€200kfell
Mário Felgueiras
Liga Portugal · 2017
31€400k€200kfell
Robert Zwinkels
Eredivisie · 2014
31€250k€250kflat
Jody Viviani
Super League 1 · 2013
31€600k€600kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025KV KortrijkStandard LiègeFree / loan€250k
25 Aug 2023Union SGKV KortrijkUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2021Waasland-BeverenUnion SGUnknown€400k
30 Jun 2021Union SGWaasland-BeverenFree / loan€400k
20 Jan 2021Waasland-BeverenUnion SGFree / loan€400k
11 Jul 2019Sint-TruidenWaasland-Beveren€125k€800k
1 Jul 2016Standard LiègeSint-TruidenFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2016Lommel UnitedStandard LiègeFree / loan€400k
30 Aug 2015Standard LiègeLommel UnitedFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2014Standard U21Standard LiègeUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Standard U19Standard U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Standard U17Standard U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.