Silvan Widmer

33 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Switzerland
1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€216k – €1.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€882k – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€295k – €667k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€137k – €2.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€216k – €1.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€882k – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€295k – €667k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Silvan Widmer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1819 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average69.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €522k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €9.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1819 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
70 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1485
Opponent strength
1492
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€295k – €667k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; role change RB -> RM; relative output down 34% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -50% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM27181959%210.150.17149214850.94
2024/251.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRB2748916%010.180.16149115150.94
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM20124541%130.290.23154614891.01
2022/231.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM26168955%220.210.22155614961.04
2021/221.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRM33292596%450.280.32151715071.05
2017/18Udinese CalcioSerie ARM24162247%320.280.41147813390.86
2016/17Udinese CalcioSerie ARB28249173%040.140.14146613790.88
2015/16Udinese CalcioSerie ARM27190356%030.140.31152013580.95
2014/15Udinese CalcioSerie ARB36300888%260.240.20148713700.93
2013/14Udinese CalcioSerie ARB16108032%010.080.10146414190.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05215900—
2025/26World CupSwitzerland210200—
2025/26Uefa Conference League Qualifying1.FSV Mainz 05119001343
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0511300—
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05213000—
2021/22Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05329400—
2017/18Italy CupUdinese Calcio211000—
2016/17Italy CupUdinese Calcio19000—
2015/16Italy CupUdinese Calcio19000—
2014/15Italy CupUdinese Calcio215801—
2013/14Italy CupUdinese Calcio436001—
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingUdinese Calcio145001349

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Simone Padoin
Serie A · 2017
33€800k€500kfell
Alberto Aquilani
Serie A · 2017
33€1.0M€700kfell
Thomas Delaine
Ligue 1 · 2024
32€1.0M€500kfell
Jonas Martin
Ligue 1 · 2024
34€1.0M€300kfell
Mounir Obbadi
Ligue 1 · 2016
33€1.0M€700kfell
Joris Marveaux
Ligue 1 · 2014
32€1.0M€500kfell
Darren Fletcher
Premier League · 2015
31€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Rubén Alcaraz
Laliga · 2023
32€2.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jul 2021BaselMainz€2.5M€4.0M
12 Jul 2018UdineseBasel€4.5M€8.5M
1 Jul 2013Granada CFUdineseUnknown€950k
30 Jun 2013FC AarauGranada CFFree / loan€950k
2 Jul 2012Granada CFFC AarauFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2012FC AarauGranada CF€750k€800k
1 Jul 2011Aarau U18FC AarauUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.