
Silvan Widmer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Silvan Widmer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1819 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 69.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €522k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1819 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €295k – €667k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; role change RB -> RM; relative output down 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -50% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 27 | 1819 | 59% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1492 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RB | 27 | 489 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1491 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 20 | 1245 | 41% | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 1546 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 26 | 1689 | 55% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1556 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RM | 33 | 2925 | 96% | 4 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 1517 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 24 | 1622 | 47% | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.41 | 1478 | 1339 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RB | 28 | 2491 | 73% | 0 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1466 | 1379 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 27 | 1903 | 56% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.31 | 1520 | 1358 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3008 | 88% | 2 | 6 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1487 | 1370 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RB | 16 | 1080 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1464 | 1419 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1343 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 294 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 158 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1349 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simone Padoin Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Alberto Aquilani Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Thomas Delaine Ligue 1 · 2024 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jonas Martin Ligue 1 · 2024 | 34 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Mounir Obbadi Ligue 1 · 2016 | 33 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Joris Marveaux Ligue 1 · 2014 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Darren Fletcher Premier League · 2015 | 31 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Rubén Alcaraz Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2021 | Basel | Mainz | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Udinese | Basel | €4.5M | €8.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Granada CF | Udinese | Unknown | €950k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | FC Aarau | Granada CF | Free / loan | €950k |
| 2 Jul 2012 | Granada CF | FC Aarau | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | FC Aarau | Granada CF | €750k | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Aarau U18 | FC Aarau | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.