Nikolaos Papadopoulos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolaos Papadopoulos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 12.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €47k vs market €125k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1217
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €47k – €108k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 20 | 1800 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1217 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 14 | 1260 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1255 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 18 | 1454 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1267 | 1212 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 24 | 2160 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1247 | 1198 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 12 | 1080 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1230 | 1252 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 15 | 1289 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1289 | 1283 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1245 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | GK | 22 | 1980 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1312 | 1257 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | PAS Lamia 1964 | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1288 | 1236 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | GK | 11 | 990 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1311 | 1290 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | GK | 24 | 2160 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1309 | 1273 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | Panionios Athens | Super League 1 | GK | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1359 | 1264 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Lamia 1964 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 5 | 443 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | Panionios Athens | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan López Super League 1 · 2017 | 36 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Adam Legzdins Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Sammy Bossut Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 37 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Bojan Saranov Super League 1 · 2023 | 36 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Boy Waterman Super League 1 · 2021 | 37 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Dmitriy Nepogodov Premier Liga · 2023 | 35 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Yuriy Pankiv Premier Liga · 2022 | 38 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Huanderson Super League 1 · 2019 | 36 | €150k | €50k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | PAS Lamia | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €400k |
| 28 Jul 2017 | Atromitos | PAS Lamia | Free / loan | €350k |
| 8 Jul 2016 | Panionios | Atromitos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jul 2013 | F. Düsseldorf | Panionios | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 Jul 2012 | Olympiacos | F. Düsseldorf | €50k | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Olympiacos U20 | Olympiacos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | GS Marko U19 | Olympiacos U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.