Simon Murray
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Simon Murray's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1780 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 16.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €55k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1780 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1199
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €49k – €102k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -59% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1780 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 28 | 1780 | 60% | 7 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 1199 | 1121 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 33 | 2673 | 90% | 15 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.71 | 1241 | 1122 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 32 | 2517 | 85% | 11 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.75 | 1248 | 1094 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 9 | 434 | 15% | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 1308 | 1137 | 0.40 |
| 2017/18 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 22 | 1462 | 49% | 6 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 1270 | 1322 | 0.47 |
| 2017/18 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 9 | 726 | 24% | 2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 1295 | 1160 | 0.47 |
| 2015/16 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 22 | 1013 | 30% | 7 | 2 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 1257 | 1189 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Queen's Park FC | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Arbroath FC | 5 | 455 | 3 | 5 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan White Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Dougie Imrie Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Vangelis Mantzios Super League 1 · 2017 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Georgios Manousos Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Steven Fletcher Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Nicky Clark Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €375k | €300k | fell |
| Deniz Baykara Super League 1 · 2016 | 32 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Erik Jendrisek Super League 1 · 2020 | 34 | €300k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2024 | Ross County | Dundee FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Queen's Park | Ross County | Unknown | €275k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Without Club | Queen's Park | Unknown | €350k |
| 27 Mar 2020 | Bidvest Wits FC | Without Club | Unknown | €450k |
| 23 Jul 2018 | Hibernian FC | Bidvest Wits FC | €168k | €450k |
| 14 May 2018 | Dundee FC | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Hibernian FC | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dundee United | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 10 May 2015 | Arbroath | Dundee United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jan 2015 | Dundee United | Arbroath | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jan 2015 | Arbroath | Dundee United | €64k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Dundee Violet | Arbroath | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Mar 2014 | Career break | Dundee Violet | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Tayport FC | Career break | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Montrose U20 | Tayport FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2011 | Downfield FC | Montrose U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Montrose U20 | Downfield FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.