
Janik Haberer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Janik Haberer's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1652 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €679k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1652 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1527
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €538k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 36% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -72% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1652 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 1652 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1527 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 1704 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1494 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 21 | 1222 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1535 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2214 | 72% | 5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1502 | 1587 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 807 | 26% | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 1524 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 14 | 480 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1556 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1725 | 56% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1522 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 27 | 2344 | 77% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1538 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 33 | 2758 | 90% | 3 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 1522 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | SS | 32 | 1956 | 64% | 3 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.47 | 1541 | 1444 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 156 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 5 | 358 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 9 | 650 | 0 | 1 | 1536 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 4 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 4 | 128 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 207 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1374 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 203 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Biondini Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Édgar Barreto Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Pierrick Capelle Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €1.0M | €1.6M | rose |
| Radja Nainggolan Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €5.0M | €800k | fell |
| Vladislav Kulik Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €3.0M | €300k | fell |
| Adem Kocak Super Lig · 2013 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Somália Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Adrien Silva Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Freiburg | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hoffenheim | Freiburg | €2.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | VfL Bochum | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hoffenheim | VfL Bochum | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Unterhaching | Hoffenheim | €500k | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | U'haching U19 | Unterhaching | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | U'haching U17 | U'haching U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Memmingen U17 | U'haching U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Ravensburg Yth. | Memmingen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2006 | FC Wangen Yth. | Ravensburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.