Janik Haberer

32 yrs · Central midfielder (also SS) · Germany
1.FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€509k – €1.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.1M – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€538k – €1.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€492k – €2.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€509k – €1.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.1M – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€538k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Janik Haberer's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1652 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 47

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average62.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €679k vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1652 (54% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
62 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1392
Opponent strength
1527
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€538k – €1.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 36% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -72% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1652 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FC Union BerlinBundesligaCM28165254%010.050.12152713920.94
2024/251.FC Union BerlinBundesligaCM28170456%000.000.09149413940.94
2023/241.FC Union BerlinBundesligaCM21122240%110.150.17153514311.01
2022/231.FC Union BerlinBundesligaCM32221472%510.240.17150215871.04
2021/22SC FreiburgBundesligaCM2680726%300.330.27152415431.05
2020/21SC FreiburgBundesligaCM1448016%000.000.14155614921.06
2019/20SC FreiburgBundesligaCM26172556%220.210.21152214771.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaCM27234477%140.190.19153814131.05
2017/18SC FreiburgBundesligaCM33275890%340.230.29152214151.04
2016/17SC FreiburgBundesligaSS32195664%340.320.47154114441.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin315601—
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin215500—
2023/24Uefa Champions League1.FC Union Berlin5358001684
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin13110—
2022/23Uefa Europa League1.FC Union Berlin9650011536
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FC Union Berlin425600—
2021/22Dfb PokalSC Freiburg412800—
2019/20Dfb PokalSC Freiburg19000—
2018/19Dfb PokalSC Freiburg18400—
2017/18Dfb PokalSC Freiburg320711—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Freiburg265001374
2016/17Dfb PokalSC Freiburg220311—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Davide Biondini
Serie A · 2013
30€2.0M€750kfell
Édgar Barreto
Serie A · 2016
32€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Pierrick Capelle
Ligue 1 · 2018
31€1.0M€1.6Mrose
Radja Nainggolan
Serie A · 2021
33€5.0M€800kfell
Vladislav Kulik
Premier Liga · 2015
30€3.0M€300kfell
Adem Kocak
Super Lig · 2013
30€1.5M€800kfell
Somália
Ligue 1 · 2018
30€2.0M€1.6Mfell
Adrien Silva
Serie A · 2021
32€3.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022FreiburgUnion BerlinFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jul 2016HoffenheimFreiburg€2.0M€1.0M
30 Jun 2016VfL BochumHoffenheimFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2015HoffenheimVfL BochumFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2014UnterhachingHoffenheim€500k€225k
1 Jul 2012U'haching U19UnterhachingUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2011U'haching U17U'haching U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2011Memmingen U17U'haching U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Ravensburg Yth.Memmingen U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2006FC Wangen Yth.Ravensburg Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.