Gonçalo Paciência

32 yrs · Striker · Portugal
CD Santa Clara · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€235k – €712k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€264k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€284k – €611k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€448k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€235k – €712k
Model value (performance-implied)€264k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€284k – €611k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gonçalo Paciência's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (499 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average18.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €449k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-41% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
499 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.54
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.65
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
19 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1276
Opponent strength
1333
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€284k – €611k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -24% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 499 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CD Santa ClaraLiga PortugalST1249916%300.540.65133312750.58
2023/24VfL BochumBundesligaST1964421%310.560.67153913721.01
2022/23Celta de VigoLaligaST2564819%200.280.47150014410.98
2021/22Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST1850416%300.540.40149615941.05
2020/21FC Schalke 04BundesligaST1574724%120.360.55153113031.06
2019/20Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST23127742%740.780.54153815351.06
2018/19Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST1138913%310.930.37142115931.05
2017/18Vitória Setúbal FCLiga PortugalST18137445%540.590.65133212930.64
2017/18FC PortoLiga PortugalST92227%010.410.32138716500.64
2016/17Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalST1555818%100.160.40133313670.58
2016/17Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1ST1281%000.000.27123015200.44
2015/16Académica CoimbraLiga PortugalST27175357%320.260.42136311940.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo318510—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt6163211517
2021/22Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt12200—
2020/21Dfb PokalFC Schalke 0412700—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt10542001562
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingEintracht Frankfurt6379311322
2019/20Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt43701—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt666101670
2018/19Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt1710—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFC Porto226001754

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Fernando Andrade
Liga Portugal · 2024
31€400k€400kflat
Santi Kolk
Eredivisie · 2013
32€600k€600kflat
Modou Sougou
Liga Portugal · 2017
33€700k€600kflat
Daniël de Ridder
Eredivisie · 2014
30€500k€400kfell
Jesé
Super Lig · 2023
30€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Tobias Mikkelsen
Superliga · 2016
30€1.0M€250kfell
Jaime Gavilán
Super League 1 · 2015
30€750k€750kflat
Hélder Postiga
Liga Portugal · 2016
34€750k€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
27 Jan 2026Sport RecifeSanta ClaraFree / loan€700k
8 Jan 2025Sanf. HiroshimaSport RecifeFree / loan€1.2M
2 Sept 2024Celta de VigoSanf. HiroshimaFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2024VfL BochumCelta de VigoFree / loan€1.5M
1 Sept 2023Celta de VigoVfL BochumFree / loan€2.0M
6 Aug 2022FrankfurtCelta de Vigo€790k€3.0M
30 Jun 2021FC Schalke 04FrankfurtFree / loan€5.0M
15 Sept 2020FrankfurtFC Schalke 04Free / loan€12.0M
12 Jul 2018PortoFrankfurt€3.0M€3.0M
30 Jan 2018Vitória SetúbalPortoFree / loan€800k
20 Jul 2017PortoVitória SetúbalFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2017Rio AvePortoFree / loan€800k
1 Jan 2017PortoRio AveFree / loan€1.0M
31 Dec 2016OlympiacosPortoFree / loan€1.0M
31 Aug 2016PortoOlympiacosFree / loan€1.5M
30 Aug 2016FC Porto BPortoUnknown€1.5M
30 Jun 2016CoimbraFC Porto BFree / loan€1.5M
28 Jul 2015FC Porto BCoimbraFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2013FC Porto U19FC Porto BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011FC Porto U17FC Porto U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Padroense U17FC Porto U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009FC Porto U15Padroense U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007FC Porto YouthFC Porto U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Gonçalo Paciência · MoneyballAI