Ally Samatta

33 yrs · Striker · Tanzania
Le Havre AC · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€216k – €720k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€477k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€186k – €581k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€244k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€216k – €720k
Model value (performance-implied)€477k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€186k – €581k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ally Samatta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1545 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average55.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €288k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1545 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.35
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
55 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1361
Opponent strength
1450
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€186k – €581k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -44% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1545 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Le Havre ACLigue 1ST27154550%210.170.35145013610.88
2024/25Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1ST944819%421.210.59130613780.35
2023/24Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos KonstantinoupolitonSuper League 1ST2099342%230.450.31124015350.42
2022/23KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST27119139%610.530.37130714950.58
2021/22Royal Antwerp FCJupiler Pro LeagueST27116038%540.700.48133514020.49
2021/22FenerbahceSuper LigST31625%000.000.30119614220.42
2020/21FenerbahceSuper LigST27137838%500.330.36127113800.37
2019/20KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST20156960%700.400.34135514290.63
2019/20Aston VillaPremier LeagueST1494628%100.100.50160313671.14
2018/19KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST28232186%2030.890.48134615570.65
2017/18KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST20117243%420.460.40135714450.63
2016/17KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST27167762%1120.700.54134415000.62
2015/16KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueST61546%201.170.59133414000.57

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsTanzania418500—
2024/25Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton420401—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeaguePanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton2116101540
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton240001253
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton4156001394
2023/24Kypello ElladasPanthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton314100—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueRoyal Antwerp FC6383301503
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueKRC Genk6513311753
2019/20Volkswagen SupercupKRC Genk171001301
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk7606311493
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk5410601440
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk12845211519
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk6539321378

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Maxi López
Serie A · 2018
34€500k€300kfell
Serge Gakpé
Ligue 1 · 2018
31€900k€475kfell
Ilan
Ligue 1 · 2014
34€500k€500kflat
Brandão
Ligue 1 · 2016
36€500k€200kfell
Raffaele Palladino
Serie A · 2015
31€500k€400kfell
Jaime Mata
Laliga · 2024
36€900k€900kflat
Filip Holosko
Super Lig · 2015
31€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Rodrigo Palacio
Serie A · 2018
36€700k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
5 Aug 2025PAOKLe Havre ACFree / loan€900k
17 Jul 2023FenerbahçePAOKFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2023GenkFenerbahçeFree / loan€2.5M
16 Aug 2022FenerbahçeGenkFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2022Royal AntwerpFenerbahçeFree / loan€3.0M
31 Aug 2021FenerbahçeRoyal AntwerpFree / loan€4.2M
1 Jul 2021Aston VillaFenerbahçe€6.0M€4.2M
30 Jun 2021FenerbahçeAston VillaFree / loan€4.2M
25 Sept 2020Aston VillaFenerbahçeFree / loan€9.5M
20 Jan 2020GenkAston Villa€10.5M€12.0M
29 Jan 2016TP MazembeGenk€800k€500k
1 Jul 2011Simba SCTP Mazembe€70kData unavailable
1 Jul 2010African LyonSimba SCUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ally Samatta · MoneyballAI