
Ally Samatta
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ally Samatta's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1545 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €288k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1545 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1450
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €186k – €581k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -44% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1545 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | ST | 27 | 1545 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 1450 | 1361 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | ST | 9 | 448 | 19% | 4 | 2 | 1.21 | 0.59 | 1306 | 1378 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | ST | 20 | 993 | 42% | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.31 | 1240 | 1535 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 1191 | 39% | 6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.37 | 1307 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 1160 | 38% | 5 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.48 | 1335 | 1402 | 0.49 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | ST | 3 | 162 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1196 | 1422 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | ST | 27 | 1378 | 38% | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 1271 | 1380 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 1569 | 60% | 7 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 1355 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 14 | 946 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1603 | 1367 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 28 | 2321 | 86% | 20 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.48 | 1346 | 1557 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 1172 | 43% | 4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 1357 | 1445 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 1677 | 62% | 11 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.54 | 1344 | 1500 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 6 | 154 | 6% | 2 | 0 | 1.17 | 0.59 | 1334 | 1400 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Tanzania | 4 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 204 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1253 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 3 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Royal Antwerp FC | 6 | 383 | 3 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | KRC Genk | 6 | 513 | 3 | 1 | 1753 |
| 2019/20 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 7 | 606 | 3 | 1 | 1493 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 5 | 410 | 6 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 12 | 845 | 2 | 1 | 1519 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 6 | 539 | 3 | 2 | 1378 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxi López Serie A · 2018 | 34 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Serge Gakpé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €900k | €475k | fell |
| Ilan Ligue 1 · 2014 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Brandão Ligue 1 · 2016 | 36 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Raffaele Palladino Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Jaime Mata Laliga · 2024 | 36 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Filip Holosko Super Lig · 2015 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Palacio Serie A · 2018 | 36 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | PAOK | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €900k |
| 17 Jul 2023 | Fenerbahçe | PAOK | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Genk | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Fenerbahçe | Genk | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Royal Antwerp | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Fenerbahçe | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe | €6.0M | €4.2M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Fenerbahçe | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €4.2M |
| 25 Sept 2020 | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €9.5M |
| 20 Jan 2020 | Genk | Aston Villa | €10.5M | €12.0M |
| 29 Jan 2016 | TP Mazembe | Genk | €800k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Simba SC | TP Mazembe | €70k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | African Lyon | Simba SC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.