Joris van Overeem
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joris van Overeem's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.94x the positional average in the league (2933 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €312k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2933 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1284
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €346k – €839k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -43% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | DM | 33 | 2933 | 96% | 2 | 9 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 1313 | 1284 | 0.43 |
| 2021/22 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CM | 23 | 1045 | 34% | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1373 | 1358 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | CM | 30 | 2306 | 75% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1378 | 1411 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | RM | 14 | 1025 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1393 | 1418 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | DM | 31 | 2616 | 85% | 2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 1331 | 1415 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 25 | 1424 | 47% | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 1308 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 23 | 1454 | 48% | 1 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 1341 | 1369 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 2497 | 82% | 4 | 11 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 1330 | 1460 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | FC Dordrecht | Eredivisie | AM | 34 | 2901 | 95% | 2 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 1356 | 1101 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 5 | 370 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Utrecht | 1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1313 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 188 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 282 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1325 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 488 | 1 | 0 | 1495 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 230 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 221 | 1 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | FC Dordrecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 21 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Mercier Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 32 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
| Martin Thomsen Superliga · 2015 | 33 | €350k | €50k | fell |
| Lucas Sasha Super League 1 · 2020 | 30 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Hakan Arslan Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €1.2M | €850k | fell |
| Castro Super Lig · 2019 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Grigoris Makos Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Sander Duits Eredivisie · 2014 | 31 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Claudio Falcão Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | M. Tel Aviv | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Utrecht | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AZ Alkmaar | Utrecht | €700k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | FC Dordrecht | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €350k |
| 25 Jul 2014 | AZ Alkmaar | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €150k |
| 23 Oct 2013 | AZ Alkmaar | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AZ U19 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | AZ U17 | AZ U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Abcoude Yth. | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.