Mike van Duinen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mike van Duinen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (704 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 6.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €95k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 704 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1360
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €87k – €151k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -25% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 704 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 28 | 704 | 23% | 1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 1360 | 1183 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 7 | 82 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1350 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 28 | 986 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1354 | 1197 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | ST | 20 | 909 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1297 | 1199 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | LW | 23 | 1191 | 39% | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 1373 | 1271 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | ST | 12 | 791 | 34% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.49 | 1385 | 1272 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2731 | 89% | 8 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 1361 | 1271 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 29 | 2411 | 79% | 8 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 1330 | 1267 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 22 | 1326 | 43% | 3 | 4 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 1377 | 1236 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Eredivisie | ST | 13 | 913 | 30% | 2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 1283 | 1213 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | LW | 33 | 2748 | 90% | 5 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1356 | 1266 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2936 | 96% | 8 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 1340 | 1315 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie | ST | 33 | 2540 | 83% | 11 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 1356 | 1298 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | PEC Zwolle | 3 | 247 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 2 | 89 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 174 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | ADO Den Haag | 2 | 180 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joan Tomás Super League 1 · 2019 | 34 | €200k | €175k | flat |
| Kjartan Finnbogason Superliga · 2021 | 35 | €200k | €125k | fell |
| Yonathan Del Valle Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €150k | €125k | flat |
| Thuram Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Hélder Barbosa Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Emmanuel Adebayor Super Lig · 2020 | 36 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Chris Eagles Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 33 | €225k | €225k | flat |
| Niall McGinn Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 35 | €375k | €225k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2022 | OFI Crete | Excelsior | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jul 2021 | PEC Zwolle | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Excelsior | PEC Zwolle | €750k | €1.3M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | F. Düsseldorf | Excelsior | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Roda JC | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | F. Düsseldorf | Roda JC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 3 Jul 2015 | ADO Den Haag | F. Düsseldorf | €500k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | ADO U21 | ADO Den Haag | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | ADO U19 | ADO U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | OLIVEO Youth | ADO U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.