Georgiy Dzhikiya

32 yrs · Centre-back (also LB) · Russia
Antalyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 188 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€237k – €752k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€170k – €377k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€327k – €757k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€582k – €140k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€237k – €752k
Model value (performance-implied)€170k – €377k
Projected value (24 months)€327k – €757k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Georgiy Dzhikiya's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 46

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average20.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €316k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1155 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
21 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1139
Opponent strength
1268
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€327k – €757k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-65 Elo); league level down (-71 Elo); relative output up 271% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -54% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1155 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AntalyasporSuper LigCB15115538%200.160.15126811390.40
2024/25FC Khimki (-2025)Premier LigaCB17133950%000.000.04134312040.55
2023/24FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB852519%000.000.04136313830.49
2022/23FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB22177266%010.050.04132013940.53
2021/22FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB28246091%110.070.07134913590.52
2020/21FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB28244090%010.040.04135514200.55
2019/20FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB27242390%110.070.08139913920.63
2018/19FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB26230685%200.080.07140514440.69
2017/18FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB17146354%100.060.05141415510.75
2016/17Amkar PermPremier LigaCB16144053%110.130.13140713240.70
2016/17FK Spartak MoskvaPremier LigaCB864224%010.140.10144615170.70
2015/16Amkar PermPremier LigaLB22149555%210.180.17144813500.79

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Russian CupFC Khimki (-2025)215100—
2023/24Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva429600—
2022/23Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva756401—
2022/23Russian Super CupFK Spartak Moskva190001530
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva6540001573
2021/22Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva432400—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva2180001627
2020/21Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva217201—
2019/20Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva439001—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva4360001440
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFK Spartak Moskva5450001500
2018/19Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva327000—
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Spartak Moskva190001558
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFK Spartak Moskva5420011611
2017/18Russian Super CupFK Spartak Moskva1120011446
2017/18Russian CupFK Spartak Moskva211501—
2016/17Russian CupAmkar Perm111800—
2015/16Russian CupAmkar Perm310610—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Julian Jeanvier
Super Lig · 2024
32€750k€400kfell
Marc Muniesa
Superliga · 2024
32€700k€700kflat
Borislav Jovanovic
Super League 1 · 2017
31€400k€200kfell
Benoît Poulain
Super Lig · 2020
33€800k€150kfell
Karim Saïdi
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
31€500k€500kflat
Peter Hartley
Scottish Premiership · 2019
31€400k€225kfell
Sidcley
Super League 1 · 2024
31€700k€700kflat
Maksym Maksymenko
Super League 1 · 2021
31€350k€125kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Jul 2025KhimkiAntalyasporFree / loan€2.0M
12 Sept 2024Spartak MoscowKhimkiFree / loan€3.5M
1 Jan 2017Amkar PermSpartak Moscow€2.4M€2.5M
1 Jul 2015KhimikAmkar PermFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2014Spartak NalchikKhimikFree / loan€75k
1 Jan 2014Lokomotiv 2Spartak NalchikUnknown€25k
1 Jan 2011LFK Lokomotiv 2Lokomotiv 2UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Georgiy Dzhikiya · MoneyballAI