Vincenzo Grifo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vincenzo Grifo's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1715 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 86.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1715 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1435
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €997k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -78% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1715 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 33 | 1715 | 56% | 7 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 1435 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 34 | 2455 | 80% | 8 | 11 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 1491 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 2345 | 77% | 8 | 8 | 0.61 | 0.45 | 1505 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 33 | 2431 | 79% | 15 | 5 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 1513 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 34 | 2790 | 91% | 9 | 8 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 1520 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 2329 | 76% | 9 | 10 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 1540 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 26 | 1621 | 53% | 4 | 9 | 0.72 | 0.70 | 1561 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 1 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1617 | 1558 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 16 | 1431 | 47% | 6 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 1520 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CM | 7 | 332 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 1550 | 1573 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 17 | 781 | 26% | 0 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 1509 | 1521 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 2494 | 82% | 6 | 11 | 0.61 | 0.66 | 1541 | 1444 | 1.06 |
| 2012/13 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LW | 12 | 271 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 1441 | 1438 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 14 | 905 | 5 | 4 | 1491 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 358 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 219 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 10 | 627 | 4 | 2 | 1500 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 511 | 2 | 1 | 1471 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 362 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 6 | 525 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 113 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 154 | 3 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Walters Premier League · 2016 | 33 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kevin Kuranyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 32 | €5.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Peter Crouch Premier League · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dimitar Berbatov Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabián Orellana Laliga · 2017 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Nils Petersen Bundesliga · 2021 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Pierre Webó Super Lig · 2014 | 32 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Samuel Eto'o Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €9.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Sept 2019 | Hoffenheim | Freiburg | €7.0M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Freiburg | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 6 Jan 2019 | Hoffenheim | Freiburg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim | €5.5M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Freiburg | Mönchengladbach | €6.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Hoffenheim | Freiburg | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | FSV Frankfurt | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €700k |
| 17 Jul 2014 | Hoffenheim | FSV Frankfurt | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Dynamo Dresden | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €400k |
| 9 Jan 2014 | Hoffenheim | Dynamo Dresden | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Karlsruhe U19 | Hoffenheim II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Pforzheim U19 | Karlsruhe U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Brötzingen U17 | Pforzheim U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Brötzingen Yth. | Brötzingen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Pforzheim Jug. | Brötzingen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.