Rodinei

34 yrs · Right-back · Brazil
Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€187k – €620k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€455k – €1.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€204k – €564k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€165k – €1.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€187k – €620k
Model value (performance-implied)€455k – €1.9M
Projected value (24 months)€204k – €564k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rodinei's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average71.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €249k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-55% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1150 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.23
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
71 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1550
Opponent strength
1224
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€204k – €564k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 48% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -57% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1150 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RB18115049%030.230.11122415500.43
2024/25Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RB23192682%470.510.20125415250.35
2023/24Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RB22184479%230.240.17125614900.42
2022/23Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1RB1089438%010.100.09125814460.37

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios8671021600
2025/26Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios414111—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios10804011516
2024/25Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios644903—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6518121472
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios3270001424
2023/24Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios221000—
2022/23Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios315600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Adriano
Super Lig · 2019
35€800k€350kfell
Eric Botteghin
Eredivisie · 2021
34€500k€500kflat
Andreas Bjelland
Superliga · 2020
32€1.2M€300kfell
Mikael Antonsson
Superliga · 2015
34€500k€200kfell
Ehsan Hajsafi
Super League 1 · 2024
34€600k€275kfell
Jérémy Mathieu
Liga Portugal · 2020
37€1.2M€1.2Mflat
Bruno Alves
Scottish Premiership · 2018
37€500k€800krose
Sokratis Papastathopoulos
Super League 1 · 2023
35€1.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jan 2023FlamengoOlympiacosFree / loan€1.3M
30 May 2021InternacionalFlamengoFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jan 2020FlamengoInternacionalFree / loan€1.6M
2 Jan 2016Vitoria-SPFlamengo€941k€2.0M
31 Dec 2015Ponte PretaVitoria-SPFree / loan€2.0M
2 Jan 2015Vitoria-SPPonte PretaFree / loan€700k
1 Jan 2015Avaí FCVitoria-SPUnknown€700k
30 Nov 2014Ponte PretaAvaí FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 May 2014Avaí FCPonte PretaFree / loanData unavailable
30 Apr 2014PenapolenseAvaí FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2014Avaí FCPenapolenseFree / loanData unavailable
30 Nov 2013CRAC (GO)Avaí FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jun 2013Avaí FCCRAC (GO)Free / loanData unavailable
31 May 2013CorinthiansAvaí U20Free / loanData unavailable
2 Apr 2013Avaí U20Avaí FCUnknownData unavailable
1 Jun 2012Avaí U20CorinthiansFree / loanData unavailable
24 May 2012Marcílio DiasAvaí U20Free / loanData unavailable
24 Feb 2012Avaí U20Marcílio DiasFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.