
Rodinei
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodinei's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 71.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €249k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1150 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1224
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €204k – €564k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -43% (IQR -57% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1150 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 18 | 1150 | 49% | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1224 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 23 | 1926 | 82% | 4 | 7 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 1254 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 22 | 1844 | 79% | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1256 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | RB | 10 | 894 | 38% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1258 | 1446 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 8 | 671 | 0 | 2 | 1600 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 141 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 10 | 804 | 0 | 1 | 1516 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 449 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 518 | 1 | 2 | 1472 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriano Super Lig · 2019 | 35 | €800k | €350k | fell |
| Eric Botteghin Eredivisie · 2021 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Andreas Bjelland Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Mikael Antonsson Superliga · 2015 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Ehsan Hajsafi Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €600k | €275k | fell |
| Jérémy Mathieu Liga Portugal · 2020 | 37 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Bruno Alves Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 37 | €500k | €800k | rose |
| Sokratis Papastathopoulos Super League 1 · 2023 | 35 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Flamengo | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 May 2021 | Internacional | Flamengo | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Flamengo | Internacional | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 2 Jan 2016 | Vitoria-SP | Flamengo | €941k | €2.0M |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Ponte Preta | Vitoria-SP | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Jan 2015 | Vitoria-SP | Ponte Preta | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Avaí FC | Vitoria-SP | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Nov 2014 | Ponte Preta | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 May 2014 | Avaí FC | Ponte Preta | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Apr 2014 | Penapolense | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Avaí FC | Penapolense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2013 | CRAC (GO) | Avaí FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2013 | Avaí FC | CRAC (GO) | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2013 | Corinthians | Avaí U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Apr 2013 | Avaí U20 | Avaí FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2012 | Avaí U20 | Corinthians | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 May 2012 | Marcílio Dias | Avaí U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2012 | Avaí U20 | Marcílio Dias | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.