Stephen O'Donnell
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stephen O'Donnell's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 23.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €32k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1815 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1196
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €29k – €105k
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+124 Elo); role change CB -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -42% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 30 | 1815 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1196 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 24 | 1810 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1234 | 1121 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 33 | 2478 | 83% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 1245 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 22 | 1101 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1298 | 1202 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 25 | 2088 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1349 | 1243 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 29 | 2493 | 84% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1324 | 1249 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 28 | 2520 | 93% | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1291 | 1291 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 32 | 2771 | 93% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1303 | 1365 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 31 | 2718 | 92% | 2 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 1299 | 1330 | 0.47 |
| 2014/15 | Partick Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 34 | 3043 | 89% | 5 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1286 | 1233 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Partick Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 27 | 2139 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1335 | 1204 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 3 | 330 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Motherwell FC | 3 | 292 | 1 | 1 | 1321 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 390 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Partick Thistle FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alkis Dimitris Super League 1 · 2015 | 35 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Hasan Hatipoglu Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Minas Pitsos Super League 1 · 2015 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Michael Nottingham Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 35 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Ervin Zukanovic Super League 1 · 2023 | 36 | €150k | €125k | flat |
| Zakarya Bergdich Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €125k | €25k | fell |
| Konstantinos Fliskas Super League 1 · 2017 | 37 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Cristian Săpunaru Super Lig · 2021 | 37 | €100k | €300k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2020 | Kilmarnock FC | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €550k |
| 4 Jul 2017 | Luton | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Partick Thistle | Luton | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Celtic U20 | Partick Thistle | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Aberdeen FC U17 | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Aberdeen Youth | Aberdeen FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.