Budu Zivzivadze
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Budu Zivzivadze's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (1147 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €857k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1147 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.67
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €343k – €956k
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -61% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1147 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | ST | 20 | 1147 | 37% | 6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 1514 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | ST | 15 | 955 | 31% | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 1456 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2016/17 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | ST | 4 | 83 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 1350 | 1206 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Karlsruher SC | 3 | 276 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Samtredia | 2 | 149 | 1 | 0 | 1339 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Di Carmine Serie A · 2020 | 32 | €1.4M | €600k | fell |
| Josan Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Stevan Jovetić Bundesliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Antonio Floro Flores Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nenê Serie A · 2014 | 31 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| Choco Lozano Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Maurice Dalé Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Sergio León Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2025 | Karlsruher SC | Heidenheim | €2.0M | €1.8M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Fehérvár | Karlsruher SC | €150k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Újpest FC | Fehérvár | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Feb 2022 | Fehérvár | Újpest FC | Free / loan | €600k |
| 29 Jul 2020 | Mezőkövesd | Fehérvár | €350k | €500k |
| 1 Aug 2019 | Torpedo Kutaisi | Mezőkövesd | €100k | €350k |
| 29 Jan 2019 | Esbjerg fB | Torpedo Kutaisi | Free / loan | €400k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Dinamo Tbilisi | Esbjerg fB | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Jan 2018 | Esbjerg fB | Dinamo Tbilisi | Free / loan | €100k |
| 29 Jan 2017 | FC Samtredia | Esbjerg fB | Unknown | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Torpedo Kutaisi | FC Samtredia | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Dinamo Tbilisi | Torpedo Kutaisi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Dinamo II | Dinamo Tbilisi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Dinamo Academy | Dinamo II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.