Vitaliy Gudiev

31 yrs · Goalkeeper · Russia
Akron Togliatti · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 192 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€196k – €751k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€424k – €739k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€254k – €649k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€327k – €543k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€196k – €751k
Model value (performance-implied)€424k – €739k
Projected value (24 months)€254k – €649k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vitaliy Gudiev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 26

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average34.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €461k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2250 (83% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
34 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1212
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€254k – €649k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -60% to -38%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
63 (all positions)
Relative output kept
61%–143%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Akron TogliattiPremier LigaGK25225083%000.000.00133412120.56
2024/25Fakel VoronezhPremier LigaGK18162060%000.000.00131511940.55
2023/24Fakel VoronezhPremier LigaGK654020%000.000.00139312440.49
2022/23FC Khimki (-2025)Premier LigaGK867525%000.000.00135711510.53
2021/22RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK14126047%000.000.00136113000.52
2020/21RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK14126047%000.000.00133613070.55
2019/20RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK436013%000.000.00144113120.63
2018/19RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK1903%000.000.00137613980.69
2017/18RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK1090033%000.000.00143114190.75
2016/17RFK Akhmat GroznyPremier LigaGK1903%000.000.00135614290.70
2012/13Spartak Vladikavkaz (-2020)Premier LigaGK327010%000.000.00139412990.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Russian CupFakel Voronezh545000—
2023/24Russian CupFakel Voronezh545000—
2022/23Russian CupFC Khimki (-2025)327000—
2020/21Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny327000—
2018/19Russian CupRFK Akhmat Grozny221000—
2013/14Russian CupSpartak Vladikavkaz (-2020)221000—
2012/13Russian CupSpartak Vladikavkaz (-2020)19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rafael Romo
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
31€750k€400kfell
Boban Bajkovic
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€700k€700kflat
William Dutoit
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
32€650k€150kfell
Damir Kahriman
Premier Liga · 2014
30€1.0M€800kfell
Olivier Werner
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
30€700k€250kfell
Wouter Biebauw
Jupiler Pro League · 2015
31€800k€400kfell
Tom Vandenberghe
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
32€600k€250kfell
Bogdan Shust
Premier Liga · 2016
30€700k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Fakel VoronezhAkron Tolyatti€350k€400k
1 Jul 2023KhimkiFakel VoronezhFree / loan€400k
10 Jul 2022Akhmat GroznyKhimkiFree / loan€700k
15 Feb 2014AlaniaTerek GroznyFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2011DYuSSh SpartakAlaniaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.