
Vitaliy Gudiev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vitaliy Gudiev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €461k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1212
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €254k – €649k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -60% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 63 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 61%–143%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Akron Togliatti | Premier Liga | GK | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1334 | 1212 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | GK | 18 | 1620 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1315 | 1194 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Fakel Voronezh | Premier Liga | GK | 6 | 540 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1393 | 1244 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | GK | 8 | 675 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1357 | 1151 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 14 | 1260 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1300 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 14 | 1260 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1336 | 1307 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 4 | 360 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1441 | 1312 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1376 | 1398 | 0.69 |
| 2017/18 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 10 | 900 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1431 | 1419 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1356 | 1429 | 0.70 |
| 2012/13 | Spartak Vladikavkaz (-2020) | Premier Liga | GK | 3 | 270 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1394 | 1299 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Fakel Voronezh | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Russian Cup | Spartak Vladikavkaz (-2020) | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Russian Cup | Spartak Vladikavkaz (-2020) | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Romo Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 31 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Boban Bajkovic Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| William Dutoit Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 32 | €650k | €150k | fell |
| Damir Kahriman Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Olivier Werner Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €250k | fell |
| Wouter Biebauw Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 31 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Tom Vandenberghe Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 32 | €600k | €250k | fell |
| Bogdan Shust Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Fakel Voronezh | Akron Tolyatti | €350k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Khimki | Fakel Voronezh | Free / loan | €400k |
| 10 Jul 2022 | Akhmat Grozny | Khimki | Free / loan | €700k |
| 15 Feb 2014 | Alania | Terek Grozny | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | DYuSSh Spartak | Alania | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.