Corentin Tolisso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Corentin Tolisso's performance-implied value at EUR 9.2M-22.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-9.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.70x the positional average in the league (2307 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €5.9M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2307 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1444
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €6.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 2307 | 75% | 11 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 1444 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2333 | 76% | 7 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 1458 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 1752 | 57% | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1476 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 2045 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1433 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 703 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 1495 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 16 | 779 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1482 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 13 | 638 | 21% | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 1459 | 1892 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 2 | 52 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.73 | 0.12 | 1526 | 1839 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1528 | 50% | 6 | 4 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 1480 | 1863 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2578 | 75% | 8 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 1431 | 1604 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2581 | 75% | 5 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 1427 | 1533 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 38 | 3317 | 97% | 7 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1429 | 1581 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 14 | 789 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1516 | 1497 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 508 | 4 | 0 | 1453 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 12 | 895 | 3 | 2 | 1525 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4 | 234 | 0 | 1 | 1619 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 116 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1713 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 3 | 254 | 1 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Super Cup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 340 | 3 | 3 | 1602 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 495 | 3 | 2 | 1701 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 277 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 8 | 669 | 2 | 1 | 1632 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 450 | 2 | 1 | 1672 |
| 2016/17 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1748 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1598 |
| 2015/16 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1690 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympique Lyon | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 510 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Alberto Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €11.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Pierre Lees-Melou Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Lucas Biglia Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Valbuena Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €11.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Téji Savanier Ligue 1 · 2023 | 32 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Esteban Cambiasso Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pontus Wernbloom Premier Liga · 2018 | 32 | €6.5M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bayern Munich | Lyon | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Lyon | Bayern Munich | €41.5M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.