Bouna Sarr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bouna Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 38.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €195k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 897 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €172k – €368k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -69% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 897 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 12 | 897 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1464 | 1225 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 2 | 105 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1360 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RM | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1414 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 5 | 59 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1424 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RB | 8 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 1509 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 75 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1455 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 27 | 2168 | 86% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1425 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 29 | 2245 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1460 | 1477 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 29 | 1785 | 52% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1428 | 1601 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 26 | 932 | 27% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1415 | 1541 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 25 | 991 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.30 | 1416 | 1458 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RW | 30 | 2071 | 61% | 2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 1436 | 1271 | 0.80 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 87 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 5 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 5 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 1592 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 175 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 15 | 1000 | 1 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickaël Alphonse Ligue 1 · 2023 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Sylvain Marchal Ligue 1 · 2015 | 35 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Aydin Toscali Super Lig · 2013 | 33 | €500k | €125k | fell |
| Mickaël Chrétien Basser Ligue 1 · 2017 | 33 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Vincent Laurini Serie A · 2021 | 32 | €600k | €150k | fell |
| Abdoulaye Bamba Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Matteo Contini Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Gaëtan Belaud Ligue 1 · 2020 | 34 | €400k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Without Club | FC Metz | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bayern Munich | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Marseille | Bayern Munich | €8.0M | €9.0M |
| 3 Jul 2015 | FC Metz | Marseille | €2.0M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Metz B | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Metz U19 | FC Metz B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | FC Metz U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.