Ángelo Sagal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ángelo Sagal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1243 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 7.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €174k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1243 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €139k – €340k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -56% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1243 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | Super League 1 | LW | 19 | 1243 | 53% | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 1212 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2022/23 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LW | 15 | 943 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.34 | 1296 | 1106 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LM | 30 | 1865 | 55% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1251 | 1238 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Denizlispor | Super Lig | LW | 35 | 2918 | 81% | 1 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 1283 | 1063 | 0.37 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Larisas | 3 | 115 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Sammon Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Abiola Dauda Super League 1 · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Sebá Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Geraldo Super Lig · 2023 | 32 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Tobias Thomsen Superliga · 2024 | 32 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Kris Boyd Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 34 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Robert Mühren Eredivisie · 2024 | 35 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Milan Skoda Super Lig · 2021 | 35 | €400k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2025 | Apol. Limassol | AE Larisa | Free / loan | €450k |
| 4 Aug 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Apol. Limassol | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ferencváros | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €900k |
| 6 Mar 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Ferencváros | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Denizlispor | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Pachuca | Denizlispor | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Juárez | Pachuca | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Pachuca | FC Juárez | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Huachipato | Pachuca | €1.9M | €500k |
| 21 Jul 2013 | Rangers Talca | Huachipato | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Rangers U21 | Rangers Talca | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.