Mahmoud Dahoud
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mahmoud Dahoud's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.48x the positional average in the league (716 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 716 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.31
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €758k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -44% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 716 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 15 | 716 | 23% | 2 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 1501 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 9 | 362 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.23 | 1435 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | DM | 9 | 454 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 1468 | 1520 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 13 | 217 | 7% | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.13 | 1486 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 9 | 335 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1563 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 22 | 1665 | 54% | 2 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 1532 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 21 | 1261 | 41% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1517 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 12 | 557 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1557 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 14 | 696 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1566 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 1137 | 37% | 0 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 1519 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 2281 | 75% | 2 | 6 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 1501 | 1549 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2083 | 68% | 5 | 9 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 1530 | 1596 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1645 | 1645 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 497 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 211 | 0 | 3 | 1403 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1624 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 492 | 1 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1919 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 223 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1851 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 186 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1855 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 395 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 350 | 1 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 299 | 0 | 1 | 1816 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 431 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1389 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Rodríguez Laliga · 2013 | 31 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Gojko Kacar Bundesliga · 2015 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iñigo Eguaras Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Vincent Pajot Ligue 1 · 2020 | 30 | €1.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Tristan Dingomé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Gonzalo Escalante Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jakub Jankto Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Leo Stulac Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €2.2M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Frankfurt | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Brighton | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stuttgart | Brighton | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Brighton | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Dortmund | Brighton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mönchengladbach | Dortmund | €12.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | M'gladbach U17 | Mönchengladbach | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | M'gladbach Yth. | M'gladbach U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Düsseldorf Yth. | M'gladbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Reusrath Jgd. | Düsseldorf Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.