Jonas Föhrenbach
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonas Föhrenbach's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €332k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2327 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €339k – €928k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -53% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 2327 | 76% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 1496 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 1832 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1512 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | LB | 33 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1513 | 1424 | 1.01 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LB | 3 | 101 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1526 | 1444 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleandro Rosi Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Cristiano Del Grosso Serie A · 2013 | 30 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Bostjan Cesar Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €1.4M | €1.4M | flat |
| Nicolas Frey Serie A · 2014 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Fabio Pisacane Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Nikola Mijailovic Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Billy Jones Premier League · 2017 | 30 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Freiburg | Heidenheim | €500k | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | J. Regensburg | Freiburg | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Freiburg | J. Regensburg | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Karlsruher SC | Freiburg | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Freiburg | Karlsruher SC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Freiburg Yth. | SC Freiburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | PSV Freib. Yth. | Freiburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.