Jackson Irvine
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jackson Irvine's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (1625 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 60.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €349k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1625 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €282k – €859k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -20%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1625 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1625 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1471 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 2610 | 85% | 0 | 5 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 1506 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 10 | 833 | 28% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1287 | 1373 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 36 | 3059 | 89% | 2 | 8 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 1277 | 1239 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 28 | 2430 | 71% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1257 | 1229 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 27 | 2246 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1290 | 1193 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1362 | 1521 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 112 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Australia | 3 | 102 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 5 | 465 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 4 | 338 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édgar Barreto Serie A · 2018 | 34 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Ledian Memushaj Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €800k | €650k | flat |
| Hürriyet Gücer Super Lig · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Tomás Pina Laliga · 2022 | 35 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Tomás Rincón Serie A · 2022 | 34 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Albin Ekdal Serie A · 2022 | 33 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Yannick Cahuzac Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Daniele Croce Serie A · 2016 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2021 | Hibernian FC | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 12 Jan 2021 | Without Club | Hibernian FC | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hull City | Without Club | Unknown | €2.8M |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Burton Albion | Hull City | €2.1M | €1.0M |
| 15 Jul 2016 | Ross County | Burton Albion | €358k | €325k |
| 28 Jul 2015 | Celtic | Ross County | Unknown | €175k |
| 31 May 2015 | Ross County | Celtic | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Celtic | Ross County | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 May 2014 | Kilmarnock FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €150k |
| 15 Aug 2013 | Celtic | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Celtic U20 | Celtic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Frankston Pines | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.