Ulisses Garcia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ulisses Garcia's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1155 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1424
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €831k – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-134 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -54% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1155 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | LB | 13 | 943 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 1496 | 1405 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 4 | 212 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1434 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 20 | 930 | 30% | 2 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.24 | 1423 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 13 | 905 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1494 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2017/18 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1421 | 1510 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LM | 7 | 350 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 1580 | 1516 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LB | 11 | 590 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1484 | 1459 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | BSC Young Boys | 6 | 505 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Strinic Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alberto Rodríguez Liga Portugal · 2013 | 29 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cristian Zaccardo Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.3M | €400k | fell |
| Fábio Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Robert Huth Premier League · 2015 | 31 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Joseba Zaldua Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Nicolás Pareja Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €4.2M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Sassuolo | Marseille | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Marseille | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 16 Jan 2024 | Young Boys | Marseille | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Werder Bremen | Young Boys | €800k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Jan 2018 | Werder Bremen | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Grasshoppers | Werder Bremen | €600k | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | GC Zürich U21 | Grasshoppers | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | GC Zürich U18 | GC Zürich U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | GC Zürich U16 | GC Zürich U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Sept 2011 | Servette M-17 | GC Zürich U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.