Marius Wolf
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marius Wolf's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-3.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.12x the positional average in the league (1012 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €973k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1012 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1441
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €752k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; relative output up 34% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -51% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1012 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | RM | 29 | 1012 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1441 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | RM | 32 | 2163 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 1510 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 22 | 1161 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1522 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 25 | 1569 | 51% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1517 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RM | 27 | 1322 | 43% | 3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 1492 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | RM | 31 | 2562 | 84% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1543 | 1400 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RW | 21 | 1412 | 46% | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 1490 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 16 | 832 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1456 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 28 | 2368 | 77% | 5 | 9 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 1536 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RM | 3 | 168 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1607 | 1424 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Hannover 96 | Bundesliga | LW | 2 | 141 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1536 | 1335 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 4 | 285 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1892 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 195 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 211 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 188 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 422 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | TSV 1860 Munich | 2 | 111 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darko Brasanac Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Manuel Iturra Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rubén Alcaraz Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Per Ciljan Skjelbred Bundesliga · 2019 | 32 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Roberto Soriano Serie A · 2023 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Jens Stryger Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Thomas Delaine Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Ryan Donk Laliga · 2017 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2024 | Dortmund | Augsburg | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | 1.FC Köln | Dortmund | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Dortmund | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Hertha BSC | Dortmund | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Dortmund | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 2 Jul 2018 | Frankfurt | Dortmund | €5.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hannover 96 | Frankfurt | €500k | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Frankfurt | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Hannover 96 | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €350k |
| 8 Jan 2016 | 1860 Munich | Hannover 96 | €1.5M | €800k |
| 26 Oct 2014 | 1860 München II | 1860 Munich | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | TSV 1860 U19 | 1860 München II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Nürnberg U17 | TSV 1860 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Nürnberg Yth. | Nürnberg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | DTFS | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Mönchröden Jgd. | DTFS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2002 | Einberg Jgd. | Mönchröden Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.