
Paulo Gazzaniga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paulo Gazzaniga's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 84.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €771k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3103 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €517k – €1.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -76% to -62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | GK | 35 | 3103 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1499 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | GK | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1487 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Girona FC | Laliga | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1458 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Elche CF | Laliga | GK | 8 | 720 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1531 | 1411 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 18 | 1612 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1630 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1575 | 1732 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1408 | 1769 | 1.15 |
| 2015/16 | Southampton FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1619 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Southampton FC | Premier League | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1446 | 1546 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Southampton FC | Premier League | GK | 8 | 662 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1566 | 1549 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Southampton FC | Premier League | GK | 9 | 810 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1472 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Pletikosa Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Jean-François Gillet Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Salvatore Sirigu Serie A · 2021 | 34 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Daniel Aranzubia Laliga · 2013 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fernando Martínez Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Manuel Riemann Bundesliga · 2022 | 34 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Stefano Sorrentino Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Rune Jarstein Bundesliga · 2019 | 35 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Fulham | Girona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Girona | Fulham | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Fulham | Girona | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Tottenham | Fulham | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Elche CF | Tottenham | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Tottenham | Elche CF | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 23 Aug 2017 | Southampton | Tottenham | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Rayo Vallecano | Southampton | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 29 Jul 2016 | Southampton | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 Jul 2012 | Gillingham | Southampton | €3.1M | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jul 2011 | Valencia U19 | Gillingham | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.