Paulo Gazzaniga

34 yrs · Goalkeeper · Argentina
Girona FC · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 195 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€578k – €1.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.3M – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€517k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€628k – €2.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€578k – €1.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.3M – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€517k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Paulo Gazzaniga's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh84.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €771k vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3103 (91% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1413
Opponent strength
1499
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€517k – €1.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -76% to -62%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Girona FCLaligaGK35310391%000.000.00149914130.95
2024/25Girona FCLaligaGK36319593%000.000.00150114030.95
2023/24Girona FCLaligaGK383420100%000.000.00148716211.00
2022/23Girona FCLaligaGK28252074%000.000.00152914580.98
2020/21Elche CFLaligaGK872021%000.000.00153114111.10
2019/20Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueGK18161247%000.000.00158116301.14
2018/19Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueGK32708%000.000.00157517321.22
2017/18Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueGK1903%000.000.00140817691.15
2015/16Southampton FCPremier LeagueGK21805%000.000.00156616191.08
2014/15Southampton FCPremier LeagueGK21805%000.000.00144615461.06
2013/14Southampton FCPremier LeagueGK866219%000.000.00156615491.12
2012/13Southampton FCPremier LeagueGK981024%000.000.00150114721.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyGirona FC19000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueGirona FC7630001618
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur4360001610
2019/20Fa CupTottenham Hotspur218000—
2018/19Fa CupTottenham Hotspur218000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur190001656
2016/17Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano221000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Stipe Pletikosa
Premier Liga · 2014
35€1.8M€500kfell
Jean-François Gillet
Serie A · 2013
34€2.0M€200kfell
Salvatore Sirigu
Serie A · 2021
34€2.5M€500kfell
Daniel Aranzubia
Laliga · 2013
34€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Fernando Martínez
Laliga · 2023
33€2.0M€700kfell
Manuel Riemann
Bundesliga · 2022
34€1.2M€600kfell
Stefano Sorrentino
Serie A · 2013
34€3.0M€800kfell
Rune Jarstein
Bundesliga · 2019
35€2.0M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023FulhamGironaFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2023GironaFulhamFree / loan€3.0M
1 Sept 2022FulhamGironaFree / loan€2.0M
24 Jul 2021TottenhamFulhamFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2021Elche CFTottenhamFree / loan€3.0M
1 Feb 2021TottenhamElche CFFree / loan€4.0M
23 Aug 2017SouthamptonTottenhamUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2017Rayo VallecanoSouthamptonFree / loan€1.0M
29 Jul 2016SouthamptonRayo VallecanoFree / loan€1.0M
20 Jul 2012GillinghamSouthampton€3.1MData unavailable
28 Jul 2011Valencia U19GillinghamFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Valencia CF YouValencia U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.