Alberto Grassi

31 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Italy
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.4M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€407k – €1.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€727k – €2.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€392k – €1.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€420k – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€407k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€727k – €2.3M
Projected value (24 months)€392k – €1.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.4M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alberto Grassi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (1755 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average57.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €543k vs market €1.4M
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1755 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
57 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1299
Opponent strength
1512
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€392k – €1.2M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 34% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -65% to -20%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1755 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie ADM30175551%000.000.07151212990.93
2024/25FC EmpoliSerie ADM28221665%110.080.11149213440.99
2023/24FC EmpoliSerie ADM27181553%010.050.09146013880.98
2022/23FC EmpoliSerie ADM25119435%000.000.07146413880.94
2021/22Cagliari CalcioSerie ADM30218364%020.080.12147813100.89
2020/21Parma Calcio 1913Serie ACM23117834%000.000.11148812520.90
2019/20Parma Calcio 1913Serie ACM1663719%120.420.32142513730.82
2018/19Parma Calcio 1913Serie ACM746214%000.000.19143912940.78
2017/18SPALSerie ACM28226166%300.120.21146713420.86
2016/17Atalanta BCSerie ADM1869120%100.130.09144715390.88
2015/16Atalanta BCSerie ACM1398329%000.000.14151814110.95
2014/15Atalanta BCSerie ACM32016%000.000.19147313740.93

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUS Cremonese15900—
2024/25Italy CupFC Empoli312600—
2023/24Italy CupFC Empoli19000—
2021/22Italy CupCagliari Calcio13200—
2019/20Italy CupParma Calcio 191312300—
2016/17Italy CupAtalanta BC213310—
2015/16Italy CupAtalanta BC19000—
2014/15Italy CupAtalanta BC14500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kamel Chafni
Ligue 1 · 2013
31€1.5M€750kfell
François Bellugou
Ligue 1 · 2017
30€1.5M€600kfell
Albin Ekdal
Serie A · 2022
33€1.0M€800kfell
Davide Biondini
Serie A · 2013
30€2.0M€750kfell
Emmanuel Cascione
Serie A · 2015
32€600k€150kfell
Pierrick Capelle
Ligue 1 · 2018
31€1.0M€1.6Mrose
Somália
Ligue 1 · 2018
30€2.0M€1.6Mfell
Emil Hallfredsson
Serie A · 2016
32€2.0M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
19 Jul 2025FC EmpoliCremonese€1.0M€1.8M
1 Jul 2023ParmaFC EmpoliFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2023FC EmpoliParmaFree / loan€2.0M
17 Aug 2022ParmaFC EmpoliFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2022CagliariParmaFree / loan€2.5M
21 Aug 2021ParmaCagliariFree / loan€4.5M
1 Sept 2020NapoliParma€8.4M€5.5M
31 Aug 2020ParmaNapoliFree / loan€5.5M
14 Aug 2018NapoliParmaFree / loan€7.0M
30 Jun 2018SPALNapoliFree / loan€7.0M
27 Jul 2017NapoliSPALFree / loan€3.2M
30 Jun 2017AtalantaNapoliFree / loan€3.2M
30 Aug 2016NapoliAtalantaFree / loan€4.0M
27 Jan 2016AtalantaNapoli€8.0M€2.0M
1 Jul 2014Atalanta U19AtalantaUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2011Atalanta YouthAtalanta U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Alberto Grassi · MoneyballAI