Rúben Semedo

32 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
Avs Futebol · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€300k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€84k – €421k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€164k – €709k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€139k – €300k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€257k – €625k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€84k – €421k
Model value (performance-implied)€164k – €709k
Projected value (24 months)€139k – €300k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rúben Semedo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average15.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €199k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
782 (26% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
15 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1182
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€139k – €300k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -56% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 782 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Avs FutebolLiga PortugalCB978226%000.000.07132511820.58
2021/22FC PortoLiga PortugalCB150%000.000.04128116920.67
2020/21Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1CB22186079%100.050.03127215310.39
2019/20Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1CB21188881%100.050.03128615910.46
2018/19Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB14126041%210.210.16139913710.65
2018/19SD HuescaLaligaCB1184825%000.000.06155114101.14
2017/18Villarreal CFLaligaCB42317%000.000.05156815691.11
2016/17Sporting CPLiga PortugalCB24209068%000.000.01133715210.58
2015/16Vitória Setúbal FCLiga PortugalCB15128142%000.000.03140512140.58
2015/16Sporting CPLiga PortugalCB14120839%000.000.02135816080.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios4390001405
2021/22Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios19010—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Porto145001573
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6529001656
2020/21Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios532100—
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2180001441
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios190001576
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6540201674
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios6515201522
2019/20Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios428100—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios2119001665
2018/19Copa Del ReySD Huesca13300—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueVillarreal CF190001451
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueSporting CP6540001702
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueSporting CP175001649
2015/16Supercup Candido De OliveiraSporting CP15001719

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Cuco Martina
Eredivisie · 2022
33€300k€250kflat
Andriy Sakhnevych
Premier Liga · 2020
31€300k€250kflat
Tiago Valente
Liga Portugal · 2016
31€400k€125kfell
Boban Grncarov
Premier Liga · 2014
32€600k€400kfell
Felix Bastians
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
33€400k€225kfell
Raúl Bravo
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
32€400k€300kfell
Oleg Synyogub
Premier Liga · 2021
32€200k€100kfell
Aleksandr Denisov
Premier Liga · 2021
32€300k€75kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
14 Oct 2025Without ClubAvs FSUnknown€1.5M
1 Jul 2025Al-Markhiya SCWithout ClubUnknown€1.5M
6 Mar 2025Without ClubAl-Markhiya SCUnknown€2.0M
31 Jan 2025Al-Duhail SCWithout ClubUnknown€2.0M
29 Jan 2025Al-Khor SCAl-Duhail SCFree / loan€2.0M
12 Jul 2024Al-Duhail SCAl-Khor SCFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2024Al-Markhiya SCAl-Duhail SCFree / loan€2.5M
24 Jan 2024Al-Duhail SCAl-Markhiya SCFree / loan€3.0M
1 Aug 2022OlympiacosAl-Duhail SC€3.5M€5.0M
30 Jun 2022PortoOlympiacosFree / loan€5.0M
31 Jan 2022OlympiacosPortoFree / loan€5.0M
1 Jul 2019VillarrealOlympiacos€4.5M€2.0M
30 Jun 2019Rio AveVillarrealFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jan 2019VillarrealRio AveFree / loan€1.0M
29 Jan 2019SD HuescaVillarrealFree / loan€1.0M
19 Jul 2018VillarrealSD HuescaFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2017SportingVillarreal€14.0M€9.0M
30 Jan 2016Vitória SetúbalSportingFree / loan€400k
15 Aug 2015SportingVitória SetúbalFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Sporting BSportingUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2015Reus DeportiuSporting BFree / loanData unavailable
24 Aug 2014Sporting BReus DeportiuFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2013Sporting U19Sporting BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Sporting U17Sporting U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2010CF Benfica S17Sporting U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Career breakCF Benfica S17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Sacavenense F.Career breakUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rúben Semedo · MoneyballAI