Jacob Murphy

The model rates Jacob Murphy's performance-implied value at EUR 13.1M-25.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-10.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1620 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1620 (47% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.28

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.30

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

94 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1631

Opponent strength

1616

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€2.6M – €6.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -77% to -56%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1620 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.