
Davide Biraschi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davide Biraschi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €212k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1146 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1255
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €156k – €356k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -38% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1146 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | CB | 14 | 1146 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1255 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2575 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1296 | 1264 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 1583 | 1445 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | RB | 29 | 2481 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1300 | 1354 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | CB | 14 | 1171 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1254 | 1278 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 14 | 934 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1493 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 13 | 917 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1453 | 1394 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1971 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1420 | 1324 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2843 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1460 | 1322 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1796 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1465 | 1342 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 7 | 392 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1539 | 1340 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 3 | 250 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | AS Avellino 1912 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Maksimović Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Juha Pirinen Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Branko Vrgoc Super League 1 · 2022 | 33 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Adolphe Teikeu Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €375k | €250k | fell |
| Angus MacDonald Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Calum Butcher Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Apostolos Skondras Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Branko Ostojic Super League 1 · 2016 | 32 | €200k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Frosinone | Karagümrük | Unknown | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Karagümrük | Frosinone | Free / loan | €400k |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Frosinone | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €400k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Karagümrük | Frosinone | Free / loan | €900k |
| 9 Sept 2023 | Genoa | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Karagümrük | Genoa | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Genoa | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Avellino | Genoa | €1.6M | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Grosseto | Avellino | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Apr 2013 | Grosseto U19 | Grosseto | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Pomezia Youth | Grosseto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.