Davide Biraschi

32 yrs · Centre-back (also RB) · Italy
Fatih Karagümrük · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€100k – €353k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€181k – €539k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€156k – €356k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€172k – €439k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€100k – €353k
Model value (performance-implied)€181k – €539k
Projected value (24 months)€156k – €356k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Davide Biraschi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 74

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average13.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €212k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-33% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1146 (38% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
14 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1169
Opponent strength
1255
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€156k – €356k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -38% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1146 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigCB14114637%000.000.04125511690.40
2023/24Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigCB30257575%010.030.04129612640.45
2023/24Genoa CFCSerie ACB1903%101.000.26158314450.98
2022/23Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigRB29248177%200.070.09130013540.50
2021/22Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigCB14117134%010.080.08125412780.42
2021/22Genoa CFCSerie ACB1493427%000.000.05149313250.89
2020/21Genoa CFCSerie ACB1391727%000.000.04145313940.90
2019/20Genoa CFCSerie ACB24197158%010.050.07142013240.82
2018/19Genoa CFCSerie ACB34284383%010.030.06146013220.78
2017/18Genoa CFCSerie ACB23179653%010.050.08146513420.86
2016/17Genoa CFCSerie ACB739211%000.000.08153913400.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2021/22Italy CupGenoa CFC218000—
2020/21Italy CupGenoa CFC19000—
2019/20Italy CupGenoa CFC218000—
2018/19Italy CupGenoa CFC221012—
2017/18Italy CupGenoa CFC325000—
2016/17Italy CupAS Avellino 191219000—
2016/17Italy CupGenoa CFC17400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nikola Maksimović
Super Lig · 2024
33€450k€450kflat
Juha Pirinen
Super League 1 · 2023
32€300k€250kflat
Branko Vrgoc
Super League 1 · 2022
33€300k€150kfell
Adolphe Teikeu
Super Lig · 2021
31€375k€250kfell
Angus MacDonald
Scottish Premiership · 2024
32€300k€300kflat
Calum Butcher
Scottish Premiership · 2023
32€350k€250kfell
Apostolos Skondras
Super League 1 · 2019
31€350k€250kfell
Branko Ostojic
Super League 1 · 2016
32€200k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026FrosinoneKaragümrükUnknown€400k
30 Jun 2026KaragümrükFrosinoneFree / loan€400k
22 Jan 2026FrosinoneKaragümrükFree / loan€400k
21 Aug 2024KaragümrükFrosinoneFree / loan€900k
9 Sept 2023GenoaKaragümrükFree / loan€1.3M
30 Jun 2023KaragümrükGenoaFree / loan€1.3M
17 Jan 2022GenoaKaragümrükFree / loan€1.8M
31 Aug 2016AvellinoGenoa€1.6M€400k
1 Jul 2015GrossetoAvellinoFree / loan€225k
1 Apr 2013Grosseto U19GrossetoUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2011Pomezia YouthGrosseto U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.