Daníel Leó Grétarsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daníel Leó Grétarsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €135k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1612 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1286
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €270k – €403k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change CB -> LB; relative output up 284% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -41% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1612 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | LB | 19 | 1612 | 81% | 2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1286 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | CB | 14 | 1196 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1278 | 1062 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaos Georgiadis Super League 1 · 2014 | 31 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Vitaliy Yermakov Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €400k | €100k | fell |
| Berkan Emir Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Gary Warren Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 33 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Christian Kum Eredivisie · 2017 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Kristoffer Pallesen Superliga · 2020 | 30 | €325k | €350k | flat |
| Jorge Casado Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Dani Suárez Super League 1 · 2020 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Slask Wroclaw | Sönderjyske | Free / loan | €350k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Blackpool | Slask Wroclaw | Free / loan | €300k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Aalesunds FK | Blackpool | Unknown | €400k |
| 21 Jan 2015 | Grindavík | Aalesunds FK | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Grindavik U19 | Grindavík | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.