Pedro Bigas

36 yrs · Centre-back · Spain
Elche CF · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€300k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€97k – €308k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€294k – €1.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€165k – €308k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€14k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€97k – €308k
Model value (performance-implied)€294k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€165k – €308k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pedro Bigas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average64.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €130k vs market €300k
Expected appreciationLow-12% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2069 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
65 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1389
Opponent strength
1461
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€165k – €308k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -69% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Elche CFLaligaCB28206960%130.170.20146113890.95
2022/23Elche CFLaligaCB28202559%010.040.08153613530.98
2021/22Elche CFLaligaCB19155645%100.060.08149914211.05
2020/21SD EibarLaligaCB21152945%000.000.03157314151.10
2019/20SD EibarLaligaCB23177952%300.150.15152815061.16
2018/19SD EibarLaligaCB1058417%010.150.12157615311.14
2017/18UD Las PalmasLaligaCB1289626%000.000.05157213011.11
2016/17UD Las PalmasLaligaCB32265178%410.170.15154314091.11
2015/16UD Las PalmasLaligaCB27235369%300.110.16160014731.17
2012/13RCD MallorcaLaligaCB24205860%100.040.08153714091.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyElche CF14500—
2022/23Copa Del ReyElche CF18701—
2020/21Copa Del ReySD Eibar14500—
2019/20Copa Del ReySD Eibar14500—
2018/19Copa Del ReySD Eibar218000—
2017/18Copa Del ReyUD Las Palmas218000—
2016/17Copa Del ReyUD Las Palmas14500—
2015/16Copa Del ReyUD Las Palmas13600—
2012/13Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca318900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marcin Wasilewski
Premier League · 2015
35€500k€50kfell
Massimo Paci
Serie A · 2013
35€200k€75kfell
Daniele Portanova
Serie A · 2013
35€300k€50kfell
Jérémie Bréchet
Ligue 1 · 2013
34€500k€250kfell
Nicola Legrottaglie
Serie A · 2013
37€400k€300kfell
Domenico Criscito
Serie A · 2022
36€600k€250kfell
Claudio Terzi
Serie A · 2021
37€300k€200kfell
Kader Mangane
Ligue 1 · 2018
35€500k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
7 Jul 2021SD EibarElche CFFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jul 2019UD Las PalmasSD Eibar€3.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2019SD EibarUD Las PalmasFree / loan€3.0M
31 Jul 2018UD Las PalmasSD EibarFree / loan€1.5M
13 Jul 2015RCD MallorcaUD Las PalmasFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2012RCD Mallorca BRCD MallorcaUnknown€700k
1 Jul 2011Atl. BalearesRCD Mallorca BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010CD MontuiriAtl. BalearesUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Mallorca U19CD MontuiriUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.