Ryan Thomas

31 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also AM, CM, LW) · New Zealand
PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€650k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€166k – €625k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€371k – €519k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€197k – €541k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€254k – €353k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€166k – €625k
Model value (performance-implied)€371k – €519k
Projected value (24 months)€197k – €541k
Dashed line: current market value (€650k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ryan Thomas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (2157 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 64

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average18.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €323k vs market €650k
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2157 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
18 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1186
Opponent strength
1313
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€197k – €541k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 43 pts; team strength down (-79 Elo); relative output down 49% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -58% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26PEC ZwolleEredivisieDM27215770%110.080.08131311860.43
2024/25PEC ZwolleEredivisieDM1784628%020.210.17130512650.50
2023/24PEC ZwolleEredivisieDM734011%000.000.09132111890.48
2021/22PSV EindhovenEredivisieCM61966%100.460.12123616410.60
2020/21PSV EindhovenEredivisieCM1690229%120.300.17133915670.56
2019/20PSV EindhovenEredivisieAM1180034%220.450.26134215530.62
2017/18PEC ZwolleEredivisieCM31271189%130.130.14131912680.59
2016/17PEC ZwolleEredivisieAM31222073%160.280.32134712600.54
2015/16PEC ZwolleEredivisieLW1286528%210.310.35132513470.58
2014/15PEC ZwolleEredivisieLW30206467%380.480.45135413400.52
2013/14PEC ZwolleEredivisieLW19139746%110.130.26134512820.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupNew Zealand38100—
2025/26Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle11100—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeaguePSV Eindhoven127001587
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingPSV Eindhoven215001441
2020/21Uefa Europa LeaguePSV Eindhoven4323021524
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingPSV Eindhoven297001363
2020/21Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven25501—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeaguePSV Eindhoven378001475
2019/20Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven14500—
2017/18Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle328703—
2016/17Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle212000—
2014/15Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle542610—
2014/15Uefa Europa League QualifyingPEC Zwolle2134001521
2014/15Johan Cruijff SchaalPEC Zwolle162001551
2013/14Knvb BekerPEC Zwolle538130—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jim O'Brien
Scottish Premiership · 2018
31€350k€300kflat
Roman Karasyuk
Premier Liga · 2022
31€400k€175kfell
Funso Ojo
Scottish Premiership · 2022
31€450k€225kfell
Adama Guira
Superliga · 2019
31€400k€200kfell
Johanna Omolo
Super Lig · 2021
32€500k€100kfell
Scott Robertson
Scottish Premiership · 2014
29€650k€250kfell
Sergiy Shevchuk
Premier Liga · 2015
30€500k€350kfell
Ali Karimi
Super Lig · 2024
30€800k€800kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
26 Oct 2022Without ClubPEC ZwolleUnknown€2.0M
1 Jul 2022PSVWithout ClubUnknown€2.5M
10 Aug 2018PEC ZwollePSV€2.8M€3.0M
16 Oct 2013PEC Zwolle U21PEC ZwolleUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2013Ole FAPEC Zwolle U21Free / loan€150k
1 Jan 2013Waikato FCOle FAFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2011MelvilleWaikato FCFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.