Yuriy Kovalev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yuriy Kovalev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (479 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 5.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €108k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 479 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1326
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €124k – €348k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -36% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 479 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | RM | 17 | 479 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1329 | 1326 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Baltika | Premier Liga | RM | 12 | 885 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 1341 | 1187 | 0.49 |
| 2023/24 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 11 | 434 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 1368 | 1272 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FC Orenburg | Premier Liga | RW | 20 | 814 | 30% | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 1317 | 1332 | 0.53 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | LM | 11 | 645 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 1407 | 1216 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal Tula | Premier Liga | RM | 5 | 160 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1392 | 1327 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 7 | 555 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 6 | 351 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 4 | 211 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FC Orenburg | 5 | 361 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | Arsenal Tula | 2 | 129 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Shakhter Soligorsk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1309 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Johnson Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Zé Vítor Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| André Geraldes Liga Portugal · 2024 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Chris Clark Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 33 | €325k | €275k | flat |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Luíz Carlos Super Lig · 2018 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Don Cowie Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Anastasios Dentsas Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €250k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2024 | Orenburg | Baltika | Free / loan | €400k |
| 7 Sept 2021 | Arsenal Tula | Orenburg | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Soligorsk | Arsenal Tula | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Soligorsk II | Soligorsk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.