Cafú
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cafú's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (1324 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 34.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €142k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1324 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1203
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €105k – €251k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-65 Elo); role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -36% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1324 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CM | 25 | 1324 | 43% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1275 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | DM | 34 | 1393 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1285 | 1268 | 0.39 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | DM | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1573 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CM | 2 | 17 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 5.29 | 0.17 | 1180 | 1531 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CM | 1 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1164 | 1591 | 0.46 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CM | 10 | 681 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1496 | 1278 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CM | 18 | 1186 | 35% | 0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 1446 | 1362 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 2730 | 89% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1404 | 1311 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | DM | 29 | 1987 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1395 | 1390 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1438 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 3 | 251 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gardawski Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Marios Nikolaou Super League 1 · 2016 | 33 | €150k | €200k | rose |
| Giannis Zaradoukas Super League 1 · 2018 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Wilfred Moke Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Murray Davidson Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 34 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Andrew Shinnie Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 34 | €325k | €50k | fell |
| Álvaro Peña Eredivisie · 2024 | 33 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Tom Trybull Superliga · 2024 | 31 | €350k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2024 | Rotherham | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €400k |
| 8 Jul 2023 | Nott'm Forest | Rotherham | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Feb 2021 | Olympiacos | Nott'm Forest | €1.4M | €1.2M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Nott'm Forest | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Olympiacos | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Legia Warszawa | Olympiacos | €400k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Metz | Legia Warszawa | €800k | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Legia Warszawa | FC Metz | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 27 Feb 2018 | FC Metz | Legia Warszawa | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Aug 2017 | FC Lorient | FC Metz | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vit. Guimarães | FC Lorient | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 26 Jul 2013 | Benfica B | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Vitória SC U17 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Vitória SC U15 | Vitória SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Vitória SC Yth | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Taipas Y | Vitória SC Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.