Mattijs Branderhorst

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Netherlands
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€206k – €844k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€253k – €555k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€242k – €528k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€590k – €348k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€206k – €844k
Model value (performance-implied)€253k – €555k
Projected value (24 months)€242k – €528k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mattijs Branderhorst's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 24

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average24.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €421k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €900k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2160 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1325
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€242k – €528k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -33%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
217 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–152%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieGK24216071%000.000.00132511750.43
2024/25Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieGK28252082%000.000.00129512110.50
2023/24FC UtrechtEredivisieGK545015%000.000.00135013540.48
2022/23NEC NijmegenEredivisieGK21806%000.000.00133712660.58
2021/22NEC NijmegenEredivisieGK343060100%000.000.00135512430.60
2018/19Willem II TilburgEredivisieGK1903%000.000.00126112980.61
2017/18Willem II TilburgEredivisieGK20175557%000.000.00131712870.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie218000—
2023/24Knvb BekerFC Utrecht218000—
2022/23Knvb BekerNEC Nijmegen330000—
2018/19Knvb BekerWillem II Tilburg218000—
2017/18Knvb BekerWillem II Tilburg439000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Adam Stachowiak
Super Lig · 2020
34€675k€50kfell
Dimitrios Kyriakidis
Super League 1 · 2019
33€450k€150kfell
Markos Vellidis
Super League 1 · 2019
32€400k€200kfell
Ibrahim Sehic
Super Lig · 2021
33€900k€1.2Mrose
Silviu Lung Jr.
Super Lig · 2020
31€800k€400kfell
Artur Nigmatullin
Premier Liga · 2023
32€600k€400kfell
Tomas Cerny
Scottish Premiership · 2017
32€500k€350kfell
Mark Birighitti
Scottish Premiership · 2023
32€350k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025UtrechtFortuna Sittard€250k€800k
30 Jun 2025Fortuna SittardUtrechtFree / loan€800k
24 Jul 2024UtrechtFortuna SittardFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2023NEC NijmegenUtrechtFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2019Willem IINEC NijmegenFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2019NEC NijmegenWillem IIFree / loan€600k
28 Jan 2019Willem IINEC NijmegenFree / loan€600k
30 Jun 2016MVV MaastrichtWillem IIFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2015Willem IIMVV MaastrichtFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2012Willem II/RKC-19Willem IIUnknown€50k
1 Oct 2011Willem II/RKC Y.Willem II/RKC-19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009TSV Theole Yth.Willem II/RKC Y.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Mattijs Branderhorst · MoneyballAI