
Mattijs Branderhorst
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mattijs Branderhorst's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €421k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2160 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €242k – €528k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | GK | 24 | 2160 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1325 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1295 | 1211 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Utrecht | Eredivisie | GK | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1350 | 1354 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1337 | 1266 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1355 | 1243 | 0.60 |
| 2018/19 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1261 | 1298 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | GK | 20 | 1755 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1317 | 1287 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Utrecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Stachowiak Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €675k | €50k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kyriakidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Markos Vellidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Ibrahim Sehic Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Silviu Lung Jr. Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Artur Nigmatullin Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Tomas Cerny Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 32 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Mark Birighitti Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €350k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | €250k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fortuna Sittard | Utrecht | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Jul 2024 | Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | NEC Nijmegen | Willem II | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Jan 2019 | Willem II | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | MVV Maastricht | Willem II | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Willem II | MVV Maastricht | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Willem II/RKC-19 | Willem II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Oct 2011 | Willem II/RKC Y. | Willem II/RKC-19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | TSV Theole Yth. | Willem II/RKC Y. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.