Tin Jedvaj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tin Jedvaj's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €695k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1158 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1465
- Opponent strength
- 1267
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €549k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 223% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -58% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1158 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 16 | 1158 | 49% | 4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 1267 | 1465 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 15 | 1290 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1272 | 1402 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | CB | 16 | 1222 | 52% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1285 | 1453 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1084 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1317 | 1399 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | CB | 20 | 1643 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1367 | 1344 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 151 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1467 | 1563 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2642 | 86% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1535 | 1408 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LB | 16 | 1118 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1523 | 1625 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 10 | 598 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1471 | 1569 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 18 | 1422 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1518 | 1547 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RB | 15 | 955 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1511 | 1638 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1663 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1552 | 1660 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 2 | 97 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1388 | 1609 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1449 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 499 | 0 | 1 | 1505 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 448 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1461 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 187 | 1 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 165 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 264 | 0 | 1 | 1637 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | 1476 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Larsen Superliga · 2015 | 30 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ognjen Vranjes Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Jagos Vukovic Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Dmitriy Zhivoglyadov Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Jérémy Taravel Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Omar Colley Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sigurd Rosted Superliga · 2021 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ramon Motta Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.3M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Loko Moscow | Panathinaikos | €500k | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Panathinaikos | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Loko Moscow | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Al-Ain | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Loko Moscow | Al-Ain | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Leverkusen | Loko Moscow | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Augsburg | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 20 Aug 2019 | Leverkusen | Augsburg | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 20 Jan 2015 | Roma | Leverkusen | €7.0M | €6.5M |
| 19 Jan 2015 | Leverkusen | Roma | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Roma | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 12 Jul 2013 | Dinamo Zagreb | Roma | €5.0M | €750k |
| 8 Jan 2013 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Dinamo Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.