
Vincent Janssen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vincent Janssen's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-4.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (2391 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2391 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1376
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €890k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-77 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -64% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 27 | 2391 | 89% | 7 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1376 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 28 | 2478 | 92% | 10 | 6 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 1362 | 1442 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 28 | 2321 | 86% | 10 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.48 | 1381 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 30 | 2313 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 0.82 | 0.54 | 1305 | 1497 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | ST | 3 | 36 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1487 | 1732 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | ST | 16 | 854 | 28% | 4 | 4 | 0.84 | 0.47 | 1379 | 1583 | 0.68 |
| 2017/18 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1715 | 1769 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | ST | 27 | 832 | 24% | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 1492 | 1723 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 34 | 2748 | 90% | 27 | 5 | 1.05 | 0.79 | 1331 | 1460 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Antwerp FC | 8 | 697 | 3 | 2 | 1350 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Royal Antwerp FC | 6 | 411 | 1 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 153 | 1 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 5 | 286 | 0 | 1 | 1324 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 121 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 511 | 2 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 414 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 298 | 2 | 1 | 1467 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Rodallega Super Lig · 2017 | 32 | €2.3M | €900k | fell |
| Khalid Boutaïb Super Lig · 2018 | 31 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Lamine Diarra Super Lig · 2014 | 31 | €2.6M | €700k | fell |
| Jason Remeseiro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Burhan Eser Super Lig · 2015 | 30 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Aleksey Ionov Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €2.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Onur Kaya Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 31 | €1.4M | €650k | fell |
| Julio Tavarès Ligue 1 · 2020 | 32 | €2.2M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Royal Antwerp | Without Club | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Monterrey | Royal Antwerp | €5.5M | €2.5M |
| 23 Jul 2019 | Tottenham | Monterrey | €9.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Fenerbahçe | Tottenham | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 8 Sept 2017 | Tottenham | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 12 Jul 2016 | AZ Alkmaar | Tottenham | €22.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Almere City | AZ Alkmaar | €500k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feyenoord U19 | Almere City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Feyenoord U18 | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Feyenoord U17 | Feyenoord U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | NEC Youth | Feyenoord U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.