Visar Musliu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Visar Musliu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €454k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1688 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1373
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €290k – €748k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -71% to -49%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1688 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 20 | 1688 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1373 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 3 | 188 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1249 | 1302 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 10 | 832 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Sánchez Premier Liga · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Drissa Diakité Ligue 1 · 2014 | 29 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Luis Pedro Cavanda Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Rami Gershon Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| Sezgin Coskun Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €800k | €550k | fell |
| Ricardo van Rhijn Eredivisie · 2020 | 29 | €650k | €350k | fell |
| Miquel Nelom Eredivisie · 2020 | 30 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Georgiy Shchennikov Premier Liga · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | SC Paderborn | Sint-Truiden | €150k | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Ingolstadt | SC Paderborn | €600k | €500k |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Fehérvár | FC Ingolstadt | Unknown | €1.1M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Shkendija | Vidi FC | €400k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Prishtina | Shkendija | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Shkendija | FC Prishtina | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jan 2018 | FC Prishtina | Shkendija | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 Jan 2018 | Vardar | FC Prishtina | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Renova | Vardar | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | St. Gallen U21 | Renova | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Renova | St. Gallen U21 | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | St. Gallen U21 | Renova | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Renova | St. Gallen U21 | Unknown | €150k |
| 31 Dec 2012 | Gostivar | Renova | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Renova | Gostivar | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Gostivar | Renova | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.