Emre Kılınç
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emre Kılınç's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1195 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €509k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1195 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €333k – €733k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 37 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -64% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1195 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LW | 16 | 1195 | 39% | 1 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.43 | 1269 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LW | 31 | 2473 | 76% | 3 | 12 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 1286 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | LW | 33 | 2576 | 75% | 4 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 1317 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | MKE Ankaragücü | Super Lig | RW | 28 | 1978 | 61% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 1305 | 1226 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LW | 2 | 37 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1207 | 1535 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | RW | 27 | 1209 | 35% | 3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 1251 | 1326 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | AM | 35 | 2308 | 64% | 4 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 1280 | 1425 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | RM | 28 | 2340 | 76% | 8 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 1334 | 1318 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | LM | 31 | 2609 | 85% | 7 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.34 | 1385 | 1302 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | LM | 33 | 2751 | 90% | 2 | 7 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 1392 | 1356 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 2 | 126 | 0 | 1 | 1397 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 156 | 1 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 3 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1314 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 4 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 3 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 1495 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djalma Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €650k | €50k | fell |
| Mamadou Fall Super Lig · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Geoffry Hairemans Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 31 | €750k | €650k | flat |
| Bernard Berisha Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Steven MacLean Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 32 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Mohamed Messoudi Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Dimitrios Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Cristian Chávez Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2023 | Galatasaray | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Ankaragücü | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 8 Sept 2022 | Galatasaray | Ankaragücü | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Sivasspor | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 17 Jan 2017 | Boluspor | Sivasspor | €225k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Boluspor U21 | Boluspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Boluspor Yth | Boluspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.