Igor Lichnovsky
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Lichnovsky's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €421k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1170 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 8)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1245
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €296k – €640k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -48% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1170 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | CB | 13 | 1170 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1245 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2015/16 | Sporting Gijón | Laliga | CB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1895 | 1465 | 1.17 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Muniesa Superliga · 2024 | 32 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Borislav Jovanovic Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Julian Jeanvier Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €750k | €400k | fell |
| Peter Hartley Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 31 | €400k | €225k | fell |
| Loïck Landre Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Melli Super League 1 · 2015 | 31 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Karim Saïdi Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 31 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Dmitriy Tikhiy Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | América | Karagümrük | Unknown | €900k |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Tigres UANL | América | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | América | Tigres UANL | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Sept 2023 | Tigres UANL | América | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Al-Shabab | Tigres UANL | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 10 Oct 2020 | CD Cruz Azul | Al-Shabab | €2.5M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Necaxa | CD Cruz Azul | Unknown | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Porto B | Necaxa | €1.7M | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Real Valladolid | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 2 Aug 2016 | FC Porto B | Real Valladolid | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Sporting Gijón | FC Porto B | Free / loan | €700k |
| 21 Jan 2016 | FC Porto B | Sporting Gijón | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | U. de Chile | FC Porto B | €1.8M | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | U. de Chile U21 | U. de Chile | Unknown | €300k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.