João Afonso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Afonso's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 8.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €36k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 608 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1374
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €35k – €104k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 608 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 608 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1374 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CB | 15 | 1119 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1412 | 1391 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 1326 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1372 | 1358 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2867 | 94% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1375 | 1321 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 5 | 450 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1429 | 1381 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 8 | 631 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 1360 | 1335 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CB | 27 | 2430 | 79% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1351 | 1307 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 24 | 1932 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1394 | 1311 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 2000 | 65% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1418 | 1390 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Córdoba CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadson Premier Liga · 2019 | 35 | €100k | €25k | fell |
| Murat Akça Super Lig · 2024 | 34 | €75k | €75k | flat |
| Ricardo Pessoa Liga Portugal · 2018 | 36 | €75k | €75k | flat |
| Papa Gueye Premier Liga · 2019 | 35 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Georgios Dasios Super League 1 · 2018 | 35 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Fedor Kudryashov Premier Liga · 2024 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Carl Tremarco Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Mads Justesen Superliga · 2018 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2024 | Torreense | Tondela | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Santa Clara | Torreense | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vit. Guimarães | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Córdoba CF | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Jul 2017 | Vit. Guimarães | Córdoba CF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Estoril | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Vit. Guimarães | Estoril | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | BC Branco | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | C. Branco U19 | BC Branco | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.