Virgil Misidjan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Virgil Misidjan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (535 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 28.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €211k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 535 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €169k – €409k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -24% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 535 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LM | 17 | 535 | 17% | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 1322 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2022/23 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LW | 31 | 2210 | 72% | 8 | 4 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 1346 | 1505 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LW | 27 | 1132 | 37% | 3 | 4 | 0.56 | 0.48 | 1310 | 1435 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | RW | 15 | 1069 | 35% | 4 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.52 | 1321 | 1271 | 0.56 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Bundesliga | LW | 23 | 1544 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 1511 | 1278 | 1.05 |
| 2012/13 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | LM | 34 | 2422 | 79% | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 1377 | 1167 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 282 | 0 | 2 | 1407 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 2 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 3 | 188 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3 | 233 | 1 | 1 | 1295 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3 | 214 | 0 | 1 | 1344 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Nuremberg | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Cowie Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Loret Sadiku Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Stephen Gleeson Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 31 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Chris Clark Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 33 | €325k | €275k | flat |
| Lee Johnson Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Volodymyr Tanchyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Simon Cziommer Eredivisie · 2013 | 33 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Markus Halsti Superliga · 2017 | 33 | €250k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | NEC Nijmegen | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Ferencváros | NEC Nijmegen | €450k | €700k |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Al-Tai | Ferencváros | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | FC Twente | Al-Tai | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | PEC Zwolle | FC Twente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jan 2021 | 1.FC Nuremberg | PEC Zwolle | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Ludogorets | 1.FC Nuremberg | €3.0M | €5.0M |
| 16 Aug 2013 | Willem II | Ludogorets | €700k | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Willem II/RKC-19 | Willem II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Willem II/RKC-17 | Willem II/RKC-19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Willem II Youth | Willem II U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.