Mijat Gacinovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mijat Gacinovic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.51x the positional average in the league (597 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 48.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €782k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 597 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €320k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+61 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -42% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 597 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | AM | 14 | 597 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1316 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | AM | 15 | 589 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 1270 | 1450 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | LM | 18 | 1120 | 48% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1255 | 1472 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | LM | 20 | 1337 | 57% | 7 | 4 | 0.74 | 0.38 | 1244 | 1424 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | AM | 6 | 380 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 1190 | 1348 | 0.39 |
| 2021/22 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | RM | 4 | 107 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1507 | 1479 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 812 | 27% | 0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.28 | 1530 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 23 | 1047 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 1561 | 1535 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1622 | 53% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 1516 | 1593 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 1816 | 59% | 1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 1504 | 1479 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 28 | 2234 | 73% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1538 | 1424 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 7 | 328 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1479 | 1421 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 208 | 0 | 0 | 1445 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 1331 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 286 | 1 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 3 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1517 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 151 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 279 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 301 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 27 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 436 | 1 | 1 | 1450 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 295 | 1 | 1 | 1342 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 162 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 14 | 1125 | 2 | 7 | 1596 |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1863 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 287 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 488 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Pizarro Super League 1 · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Jonny Hayes Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 32 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Omar El Kaddouri Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Mário Fernandes Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Demy de Zeeuw Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 31 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Nenad Krsticic Super League 1 · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| David Fuster Super League 1 · 2015 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Tiago Silva Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hoffenheim | AEK Athens | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Panathinaikos | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Hoffenheim | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Frankfurt | Hoffenheim | €3.0M | €7.0M |
| 12 Aug 2015 | Apol. Limassol | Frankfurt | €1.3M | €1.8M |
| 3 Aug 2015 | Vojvodina | Apol. Limassol | €1.3M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Vojvodina II | Vojvodina | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Trebinje U19 | Vojvodina II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.