Nacho Vidal

31 yrs · Right-back · Spain
Real Oviedo · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.2M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€288k – €906k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€633k – €2.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€343k – €1.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€273k – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€288k – €906k
Model value (performance-implied)€633k – €2.1M
Projected value (24 months)€343k – €1.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.2M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nacho Vidal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 60

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average56.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €384k vs market €1.2M
Expected appreciationVery low-46% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2272 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
57 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1294
Opponent strength
1498
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€343k – €1.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -50% to +3%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real OviedoLaligaRB29227266%000.000.07149812940.95
2024/25CA OsasunaLaligaRB51204%000.000.19158614840.95
2023/24RCD MallorcaLaligaRB841612%000.000.12144714361.00
2023/24CA OsasunaLaligaRB7913%100.990.29149814421.00
2022/23CA OsasunaLaligaRB20124636%000.000.06150914550.98
2021/22CA OsasunaLaligaRB35290685%010.030.07153214461.05
2020/21CA OsasunaLaligaRB34234369%000.000.04156614711.10
2019/20CA OsasunaLaligaRB30233268%000.000.05154014781.16
2017/18Valencia CFLaligaRB744613%100.200.13148116071.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna420101—
2023/24Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna16500—
2022/23Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna210810—
2021/22Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna22900—
2020/21Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna313200—
2019/20Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna323610—
2017/18Copa Del ReyValencia CF218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ruslan Nakhushev
Premier Liga · 2015
31€800k€450kfell
Thiago Cionek
Serie A · 2017
31€600k€800krose
Marco Andreolli
Serie A · 2018
32€1.2M€500kfell
Aleandro Rosi
Serie A · 2016
29€800k€900kflat
Samuel Umtiti
Serie A · 2023
30€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Federico Peluso
Serie A · 2015
31€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Sébastien Corchia
Ligue 1 · 2021
31€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Christophe Hérelle
Ligue 1 · 2024
32€1.5M€1.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Jan 2025CA OsasunaReal Oviedo€200k€1.5M
30 Jun 2024RCD MallorcaCA OsasunaFree / loan€2.0M
26 Jan 2024CA OsasunaRCD MallorcaFree / loan€2.5M
13 Jul 2018ValenciaCA OsasunaFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2017Valencia BValenciaUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2014Valencia U19Valencia BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Valencia CF YouValencia U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Hércules U19Valencia CF YouFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.