
Nacho Vidal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nacho Vidal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €384k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2272 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1294
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €343k – €1.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -50% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Oviedo | Laliga | RB | 29 | 2272 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1498 | 1294 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 5 | 120 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1586 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | RB | 8 | 416 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1447 | 1436 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 7 | 91 | 3% | 1 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.29 | 1498 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 20 | 1246 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1509 | 1455 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 35 | 2906 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1532 | 1446 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 34 | 2343 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1566 | 1471 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | RB | 30 | 2332 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1540 | 1478 | 1.16 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | RB | 7 | 446 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1481 | 1607 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 201 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 108 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 132 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 236 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruslan Nakhushev Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Thiago Cionek Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Marco Andreolli Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Aleandro Rosi Serie A · 2016 | 29 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Samuel Umtiti Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Federico Peluso Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sébastien Corchia Ligue 1 · 2021 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Christophe Hérelle Ligue 1 · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2025 | CA Osasuna | Real Oviedo | €200k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | RCD Mallorca | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | CA Osasuna | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 13 Jul 2018 | Valencia | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Hércules U19 | Valencia CF You | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.