Aleix Febas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleix Febas's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (3166 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3166 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -64% to +25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 3166 | 93% | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1483 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2019/20 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | CM | 29 | 1699 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1556 | 1415 | 1.16 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 3 | 261 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Radovanovic Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Oriol Romeu Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Maximilian Arnold Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marco Parolo Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €4.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| Walace Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Joan Verdú Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Bastian Oczipka Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Wataru Endo Bundesliga · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €13.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Elche CF | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Málaga CF | Elche CF | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | RCD Mallorca | Málaga CF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Málaga CF | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jan 2022 | RCD Mallorca | Málaga CF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 12 Jul 2019 | RM Castilla | RCD Mallorca | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Albacete | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 10 Jul 2018 | RM Castilla | Albacete | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Real Zaragoza | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €500k |
| 11 Jul 2017 | RM Castilla | Real Zaragoza | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Real Madrid C | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Madrid U19 | Real Madrid C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.