
Patrik Hrosovsky
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrik Hrosovsky's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1004 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 60.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €448k vs market €1.3M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1004 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1371
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €221k – €766k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength down (-64 Elo); relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -83% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1004 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 16 | 1004 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1371 | 1471 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 26 | 1689 | 63% | 6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 1379 | 1535 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 29 | 2130 | 79% | 0 | 4 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1369 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 34 | 3018 | 99% | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1302 | 1495 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 2064 | 67% | 5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 1345 | 1356 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 24 | 1845 | 60% | 2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1329 | 1414 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 21 | 1542 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1382 | 1429 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 491 | 0 | 0 | 1487 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 1398 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 157 | 2 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 1555 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | KRC Genk | 5 | 414 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1411 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Fernandes Premier Liga · 2020 | 34 | €2.0M | €100k | fell |
| Nabil Dirar Super Lig · 2019 | 33 | €800k | €150k | fell |
| Alan Liga Portugal · 2015 | 36 | €650k | €300k | fell |
| Steed Malbranque Ligue 1 · 2014 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Castro Liga Portugal · 2021 | 33 | €1.5M | €200k | fell |
| Christian Poulsen Eredivisie · 2014 | 34 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Yuriy Zhirkov Premier Liga · 2018 | 35 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Radja Nainggolan Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 35 | €800k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2026 | Genk | Viktoria Plzeň | €1.0M | €2.0M |
| 16 Aug 2019 | Viktoria Plzeň | Genk | €5.2M | €6.5M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Vikt. Plzen B | Viktoria Plzeň | Unknown | €350k |
| 31 Dec 2013 | 1.SC Znojmo | Vikt. Plzen B | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Vikt. Plzen B | 1.SC Znojmo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Usti nad Labem | Vikt. Plzen B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 27 Jul 2012 | Vikt. Plzen B | Usti nad Labem | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Banik Sokolov | Vikt. Plzen B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Feb 2012 | Vikt. Plzen B | Banik Sokolov | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Vikt. Plzen B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2009 | Ak. ACS Trencin | Vikt. Plzen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2007 | Prievidza Yth. | Ak. ACS Trencin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.