
Furkan Soyalp
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Furkan Soyalp's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1809 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €124k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1809 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €161k – €373k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; changed club; relative output down 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -64% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CM | 28 | 1809 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1276 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CM | 18 | 550 | 17% | 2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 1248 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CM | 30 | 1591 | 47% | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 1339 | 1212 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CM | 20 | 1271 | 39% | 1 | 7 | 0.57 | 0.38 | 1271 | 1106 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CM | 6 | 100 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1230 | 1410 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | AM | 26 | 1516 | 44% | 3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.39 | 1252 | 1238 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LM | 22 | 426 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 1260 | 1252 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | LM | 15 | 429 | 14% | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 1295 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1438 | 1462 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | AM | 13 | 602 | 20% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 1397 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | CM | 14 | 747 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 1361 | 1276 | 0.68 |
| 2016/17 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | LM | 1 | 45 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1400 | 1247 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | CM | 4 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1290 | 1365 | 0.64 |
| 2013/14 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | AM | 2 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1398 | 1443 | 0.78 |
| 2012/13 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | CM | 1 | 49 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1400 | 1543 | 0.89 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmytro Kravchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Scott Robertson Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 29 | €650k | €250k | fell |
| Jim O'Brien Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 31 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Evgeniy Pesegov Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Johan Mårtensson Super League 1 · 2023 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Zeki Yildirim Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Konstantinos Kaznaferis Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Federico Gino Super League 1 · 2024 | 31 | €250k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2025 | Gaziantep FK | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Adana Demirspor | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 16 Feb 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 18 Aug 2020 | Basaksehir | Gaziantep FK | Unknown | €400k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Gaziantep FK | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €350k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Basaksehir | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Bursaspor | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €450k |
| 12 Jan 2017 | Bandirmaspor | Bursaspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Bursaspor | Bandirmaspor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bursaspor U21 | Bursaspor | Unknown | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Bandirmaspor | Bursaspor U21 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Jan 2015 | Bursaspor U21 | Bandirmaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bursaspor U18 | Bursaspor U21 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bursaspor U17 | Bursaspor U18 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Bursaspor U16 | Bursaspor U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jan 2011 | Merinosspor Yth | Bursaspor U16 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Oct 2010 | Ankaraspor Youth | Merinosspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.