Furkan Soyalp

31 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, LM) · Türkiye
Kayserispor · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€93k – €324k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€289k – €481k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€161k – €373k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€36k – €388k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€93k – €324k
Model value (performance-implied)€289k – €481k
Projected value (24 months)€161k – €373k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Furkan Soyalp's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1809 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 86

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average15.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €124k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-26% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.4M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1809 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.12
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
15 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1147
Opponent strength
1276
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€161k – €373k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts; changed club; relative output down 62% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -64% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KayserisporSuper LigCM28180959%100.050.12127611470.40
2024/25Gaziantep FKSuper LigCM1855017%210.490.30124811980.39
2023/24Gaziantep FKSuper LigCM30159147%130.230.34133912120.45
2022/23Gaziantep FKSuper LigCM20127139%170.570.38127111060.50
2022/23Adana DemirsporSuper LigCM61003%000.000.13123014100.50
2021/22Gaziantep FKSuper LigAM26151644%340.420.39125212380.42
2020/21Gaziantep FKSuper LigLM2242612%100.210.18126012520.37
2019/20Gaziantep FKSuper LigLM1542914%110.420.22129512840.45
2019/20Basaksehir FKSuper LigCM1241%000.000.18143814620.45
2018/19BursasporSuper LigAM1360220%020.300.45139712580.58
2017/18BursasporSuper LigCM1474724%100.120.22136112760.68
2016/17BursasporSuper LigLM1451%000.000.28140012470.62
2015/16BursasporSuper LigCM4572%000.000.18129013650.64
2013/14BursasporSuper LigAM2572%000.000.30139814430.78
2012/13BursasporSuper LigCM1492%000.000.18140015430.89

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dmytro Kravchenko
Premier Liga · 2023
28€300k€100kfell
Scott Robertson
Scottish Premiership · 2014
29€650k€250kfell
Jim O'Brien
Scottish Premiership · 2018
31€350k€300kflat
Evgeniy Pesegov
Premier Liga · 2021
32€400k€150kfell
Johan Mårtensson
Super League 1 · 2023
34€200k€200kflat
Zeki Yildirim
Super Lig · 2022
31€300k€100kfell
Konstantinos Kaznaferis
Super League 1 · 2015
28€400k€300kfell
Federico Gino
Super League 1 · 2024
31€250k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Sept 2025Gaziantep FKKayserisporFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2023Adana DemirsporGaziantep FKFree / loan€1.2M
16 Feb 2023Gaziantep FKAdana DemirsporFree / loan€1.0M
18 Aug 2020BasaksehirGaziantep FKUnknown€400k
3 Aug 2020Gaziantep FKBasaksehirFree / loan€350k
2 Sept 2019BasaksehirGaziantep FKFree / loan€450k
1 Jul 2019BursasporBasaksehirFree / loan€450k
12 Jan 2017BandirmasporBursasporFree / loan€200k
1 Aug 2016BursasporBandirmasporFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2015Bursaspor U21BursasporUnknown€100k
30 Jun 2015BandirmasporBursaspor U21Free / loan€100k
6 Jan 2015Bursaspor U21BandirmasporFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2013Bursaspor U18Bursaspor U21Unknown€100k
1 Jul 2012Bursaspor U17Bursaspor U18Unknown€50k
1 Jul 2011Bursaspor U16Bursaspor U17UnknownData unavailable
5 Jan 2011Merinosspor YthBursaspor U16Free / loanData unavailable
28 Oct 2010Ankaraspor YouthMerinosspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.